In 2014, the five trucks in this study averaged $36,808 at base MSRP including destination charges. By 2024, that average had reached $55,671 — an increase of nearly $18,900 in ten years. The Ford F-150 Lariat posted the single largest dollar increase, rising from $38,155 to $67,490, a jump of more than $29,000 or 76.9%.

To put that in perspective: the entire base price of the most affordable truck in the study in 2014 — the Toyota Tundra SR5 at $30,740 — is now less than the price increase on the F-150 alone.

Figure 1: Source: CarEdge / BLS OEWS.

Table 1: Base MSRP + destination charges. Source: CarEdge.

The most direct measure of affordability is the ratio of the average truck price to the average blue collar annual wage. In 2014, that ratio was 0.91x — a worker earning the sector average could cover the cost of the average truck with about 10.9 months of gross income. The ratio held relatively steady through 2021.

Then it broke. Between 2021 and 2023, as truck prices surged and wage growth lagged, the ratio climbed from 0.91x to 1.00x. For the first time, the average truck price equaled a full year’s gross salary for the average blue collar worker. In 2024 the ratio eased slightly to 0.99x as wage growth caught up somewhat — but the damage had been done, and prices remain near that historic threshold. Because these figures reflect gross income before taxes and living expenses, the real-world affordability picture is considerably worse than the numbers alone suggest.

Figure 2: Source: CarEdge / BLS OEWS.

Table 2: ★ Peak ratio year. Source: CarEdge / BLS OEWS.

From 2014 through 2021, truck prices and wages rose at a broadly similar pace. The affordability ratio held between 0.88x and 0.92x across that entire period. Then the pandemic-era supply shock hit, and the relationship broke decisively.

Between 2021 and 2023, the five-truck average surged from $43,803 to $53,500 — a $9,697 increase in just two years. Semiconductor shortages crippled production. Inventory collapsed. Dealers charged over MSRP. Manufacturers chose to prioritize their most profitable, highest-trim units rather than restore entry-level availability. The result was a surge in average new vehicle prices of roughly 26% from 2020 to 2022, about 10 percentage points above the overall inflation rate during that period.

What makes the current situation particularly frustrating for buyers is that supply chains have largely normalized, yet prices have not come back down. New car prices in 2024 stabilized around $49,175 — still 29% higher than in 2019. The pandemic gave automakers a window to reprice their products at a higher level, and they kept the new pricing in place.

The four blue collar sectors in this analysis span a meaningful wage range, and where a worker falls within that range matters enormously. Construction and extraction workers earn the most among the four groups at $63,920 in 2024, and need 10.5 months of gross income to buy the average truck — up from 9.5 months in 2014.

Production workers, averaging $50,090 annually, face a steeper climb. In 2014, they needed 12.4 months of gross income to afford the average truck. By 2024, that had risen to 13.3 months. Transportation and material moving workers are in nearly the same position, requiring 13.7 months in 2024, up from 12.8 months a decade ago. For workers in these two sectors, which represent some of the largest blue collar employment categories in the country, a new full-size truck has moved from a stretch purchase to one that is simply out of reach.

Figure 3: Source: CarEdge / BLS OEWS.

Table 3: Source: CarEdge / BLS OEWS 2024.

The pandemic did not create this affordability problem on its own. It accelerated a strategy that automakers had been quietly executing for years: a deliberate migration toward luxury buyers at the expense of the workers who built the truck’s reputation in the first place.

According to a Kelley Blue Book analysis, in December 2017 automakers produced 36 models priced at $25,000 or less. Five years later, they built just 10. At the same time, the number of models priced at $60,000 or higher grew from 61 to 90, and over-$60,000 vehicles went from less than 8% of sales to more than a quarter. The industry made a calculated bet that wealthy buyers were more profitable than working-class ones, and trucks were central to that strategy.

Base trim availability became a casualty of that approach. CarEdge data from 2023 found that of more than 53,000 new Ram 1500s available for sale nationally, the most affordable Tradesman trim accounted for just 3,445 units. Jump ahead three years to early 2026, and the situation is even worse for budget truck shoppers. Just 2,200 of the 73,000 new Ram 1500 pickup trucks for sale are the Tradesman trim level.

When automakers control what gets produced, they can effectively steer buyers toward higher-priced configurations, even when demand for entry-level options exists.

“We’re now relying on the extremely wealthy to generate the sales,” said Mark Barrott, a partner at consulting firm Plante Moran, speaking at an industry event in January 2026. “That’s a structural problem from an affordability perspective.” The numbers back him up. New-car sales were above 17 million annually before 2020 and ended 2025 at 16.3 million. The market is shrinking in part because the people who once bought these trucks simply cannot afford them anymore.

The EV era made things worse. Ford lost $2.2 billion on electric vehicles in 2022, $4.7 billion in 2023, and $5.1 billion in 2024 — then added another $4.8 billion in losses in 2025. Add in Ford’s $19.5 billion write-down announced in December 2025, and the total cost of its EV misadventure reaches $35.1 billion — more than three times the company’s total net income over the same period. Ford has pulled several EV models from its lineup entirely, including the much-anticipated electric F-150, and pushed its target for EV profitability back to 2029.

General Motors racked up comparable losses and has fared little better. GM took a $6 billion charge in Q4 2025 related to its EV pivot, on top of a $1.6 billion write-down in Q3, bringing its total EV write-downs to roughly $7.6 billion. The charges include approximately $4.2 billion in cash payments to suppliers who had expanded capacity based on sales projections that never materialized, and GM has warned that additional material charges are expected in 2026.

There is little reason to expect relief soon. CarEdge projects truck and SUV prices will rise another 3–5% in 2026, even before factoring in the impact of new tariffs on imported components. Automakers facing massive EV write-downs are not in a position to voluntarily reduce margins on their most profitable product lines.

The data tells a straightforward story: the truck that was built for the blue collar worker has been repriced for someone else. Truck prices have climbed 53.1% since 2014. Blue collar wages have grown 38.7%. That 14-point gap compounds year over year, and the 2021–2023 acceleration brought the average truck to parity with a full year’s gross salary for the first time on record.

For production and transportation workers who need a full-size truck for work, the options are narrowing. The new truck market has been deliberately reshaped around wealthier buyers. The used truck market remains an option, though elevated new truck prices have pushed used prices higher as well. Certified pre-owned trucks, lightly used models from the last two to three years, and mid-size alternatives like the Ford Maverick represent the most practical paths for buyers who cannot absorb a $55,000-plus purchase.

CarEdge will update this analysis when the BLS releases 2025 OEWS wage data, expected in summer 2026.