Toyota Inventory Is Rising. Here’s Your Best Chance at Negotiating

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Last updated Dec 8, 2023

Right now, there’s a 41-day supply of new Toyota vehicles in the U.S. What this means is, at the current sales pace, all 261,604 new Toyotas would find their new homes in just over a month without new inventory. But how does this scenario compare to other auto manufacturers? And more importantly, which Toyotas give you the most room for negotiation, and which ones are holding their ground? Let’s dive into the details.

The Big Picture: Toyota’s Competition

MakeInventory % Increase (3 Months)Market Day Supply - December 2023Market Day Supply - September 2023
Honda+68%4728
Kia+89%5328
Toyota+37%4130
Hyundai+50%7550
Chevrolet+63%8854
Nissan+58%11271
Volkswagen+52%9663
Ford+43%12789
Jeep+31%191146

Market Day Supply (MDS) is a leading industry metric that is used to assess inventory. Market day supply takes the average daily sellin rate and existing inventory into account to determine how long it would take to sell every vehicle in inventory at recent average selling rates. A healthy ‘normal’ MDS is anywhere between 45 and 65 days of supply.

As you can see, Toyota has the lowest new car inventory among mainstream brands in America with just 41 days of supply. Honda, long perceived as Toyota’s most direct competitor, is #2, but is faring better at 47 days of supply. Kia comes in third with 53 days of inventory.

Contrarily, Nissan, whose market share has been dwindling in the U.S., unsurprisingly has an oversupply of new car inventory at the moment with a MDS of 112 days. Nissan was hit hard by the chip shortage, but the brand doesn’t seem to be winning back many of the customers it lost. Nissan’s US market share is now at just 4.9%.

And then we have the American automakers. Chevrolet is above average with a 88-day supply, but Ford and Jeep are drastically exceeding healthy inventory levels. Jeep is in the lead, with 191 days of supply. Although this isn’t the best news for these automakers, it certainly opens up opportunities for car buyers looking to drive a hard bargain.

The Most Negotiable Toyota Models

Negotiate Toyota prices - Toyota bZ4X

If your goal is to save thousands of dollars on your new Toyota, then it’s time to talk about negotiability at a finer scale. For that, we need to look at today’s inventory numbers across the Toyota model lineup.

Using the tools available through CarEdge Data, we analyzed Toyota inventory for every model on sale in America. These numbers reflect nationwide supply. You can check out local Toyota inventory using CarEdge Data.

MakeModelMarket Day Supply (October)Market Day Supply (September)
ToyotaVenza4639
Toyota4Runner6145
ToyotaTundra6334
ToyotaCrown8857
ToyotabZ4X11094

Remember, a healthy auto market is characterized by about 60 day’s supply of new vehicles. The further inventory gets away from that, the more ‘out-of-whack’ the car market becomes. These models have the most inventory today of all Toyota models.

The redesigned Prius was on this list last month with a 73-day supply, but now the Prius seems to be selling quickly.

The Grand Highlander has been selling a lot quicker, and is going to be a lot tougher to negotiate now. Toyota’s new darling, the resurrected Crown, is selling slowly. Perhaps car buyers don’t have the appetite for $50,000 sedans that Toyota had expected. 

The bZ4X electric SUV tops the list, with 110 day’s supply. With no federal tax credit and similarly priced, better equipped competitors, we’re not surprised. 

Don’t negotiate without this FREE cheat sheet!

The Least Negotiable Toyota Models

MakeModelMarket Day Supply (October)Market Day Supply (September)
ToyotaCamry3930
ToyotaGrand Highlander2020
ToyotaHighlander3632
ToyotaSienna3025
ToyotaCorolla Cross2827
ToyotaRAV43228
ToyotaSequoia4423
ToyotaTacoma4232
ToyotaCorolla4118

The Camry is the best-selling sedan in America, and Toyota can’t seem to produce enough of them. There’s a 39-day supply of them, and in some local markets, the situation is even worse. Despite slim supply, our Car Coaches say you should NOT pay dealer markups for the Camry, or any model for that matter. The Highlander is not much better, with a three-week supply nationwide. 

Our CarEdge Coaches joke that the RAV4 Prime is their nemesis. It’s very tough to negotiate, all because of extremely limited inventory. Across all powertrains, the RAV4 has just a one-month supply right now. 

See Toyota listings near you – all with the power of local market data.

Toyota’s Are Still Negotiable

toyota inventory 2023

Despite the slim pickings with some Toyota models, it’s still possible to negotiate some great deals. Even for models in highest demand, there’s no reason you should have to pay for dealer markups, forced add-ons, or overpriced warranties.

Ready to negotiate like a pro? Try CarEdge Coach and CarEdge Data today! With these tools at your disposal, you can take control of your car buying experience, understand market dynamics, strategize effectively, and secure the best deal possible. We’re simply here to help!

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