With the model year changeover underway and financial results to report, automakers are offering year-end deals to help clear out leftover inventory and boost sales numbers. And two of the most popular brands are also among the most aggressive when it comes to discounts in the final weeks of the calendar year. You’ve probably heard about Happy Honda Days or Toyotathon, but which will have the best year-end sales in 2025: Honda or Toyota? 

While Honda already released some year-end deals, we’re still waiting to see what Toyota has in store. For now, we can look at a few signs hinting at which one might offer better deals. If cars are selling well, there’s less need to discount them, but if they sit on dealer lots for too long, discounts are more likely to follow. So sales data and other metrics can at least tell us which automaker is more likely to roll out the big sales.

Industry metrics show Toyota in a stronger position

Going into November, several key metrics for vehicle sales show Toyota in a much stronger position than Honda. According to CarEdge data, the current overall industry average for new-car inventory is 90 days of market supply. This means that at the current rate of sales, dealers have enough new vehicles on their lots to last 90 days before that supply needs to be replenished. Lower numbers indicate more demand, and while Honda is beating the industry average at 69 days, Toyota is even further ahead at 39 days-worth of inventory.

With its cars staying on dealer lots comparatively longer than Toyota’s, Honda has more incentive to offer deeper discounts in order to get inventory moving. Cars that remain unsold at dealerships aren’t making money, and with costly floorplanning costs, there comes a point where it’s worthwhile to lower the price in order to finally sell some cars. 

Making room for the coming year’s models is also an incentive. Although, because many 2026 Honda and Toyota have already been on sale for some time, that may not be as much of a factor here.

Toyota had much stronger October sales

While November sales will set the stage for year-end sales, unless they’re drastically different from October’s numbers, Toyota will be the leader. Honda’s sales rose 0.5% in October compared to the previous month, but Toyota’s sales spiked by 12%, according to Automotive News.

Some of that difference can be attributed to temporary circumstances. Light-truck sales surged overall, a trend that favors Toyota, whose Tacoma and Tundra appeal more to mainstream truck buyers than Honda’s unorthodox Ridgeline. The Tacoma saw a major sales increase, while Ridgeline sales were down 6.5% over the previous month. Whether truck demand remains elevated through the end of the year remains to be seen, however.

But as Automotive News notes, the Toyota Corolla and 4Runner also saw big sales increases similar to the Tacoma. And while the Honda Passport had a record month, with sales up 85.1% year-over-year, the Toyota Grand Highlander has a similar sales jump. That’s impressive considering that the Passport is newer, with that big year-over-year sales boost fueled by the ramp-up of production for the redesigned 2026 model.

See Toyota inventory near you — and negotiate with AI to rake in the savings.

Honda cars are already selling for less

Besides sales numbers and supply levels, another important metric is average transaction prices (ATP). Automakers and dealers want to maximize the profit on each vehicle sold, but that can vary depending on how much a given vehicle costs to make and how much dealers are paying to add them to their inventory. The higher the ATP, the more room for profit.

Our data show that the average selling price for a new car in the United States is around $50,000. At the time of publication, both Honda and Toyota come in beneath that, averaging $38,527 and $42,856, respectively. That’s not unexpected, as both brands are on the mainstream side, with several value-focused models in their respective lineups. 

The transaction price is what the car actually sells for, compared to the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) listed on the window sticker and in ads, which is, the name says, just a suggestion. Higher ATP can also reflect a greater mix of high-trim-level or well-optioned vehicles being sold, compared to base models. Either way, the higher the ATP, the more money automakers and dealers are likely to be making. 

Lower transaction prices thus leave less room for discounts while maintaining profits. So even with slower sales, Honda may not have as much maneuvering room when it comes to year-end sales, although it is already offering 0% APR financing on two slow-selling models—the Ridgeline and the Prologue electric SUV. And Toyota may only offer deeper discounts if higher prices start turning away more shoppers—which wasn’t the case in October.

Browse Honda listings with the power of local market data.

An important new Toyota model is about to hit dealerships

As 2025 draws to a close, Toyota may also have one more potential advantage. The 2026 Toyota RAV4—a redesigned version of the popular compact crossover SUV—is due to start reaching dealerships in December. The RAV4 was already a top seller despite being one of the older models in its segment, and this sixth-generation version brings chassis and tech updates, a standard hybrid powertrain (plug-in hybrids models will follow), and more design choices.

Honda’s competitor—the CR-V—has similar name recognition (both are among the original small crossovers) and an equally solid reputation. But for 2026, Honda only gave the CR-V a minor refresh, and 2026 CR-V models have already been on sale for some time. With its redesigned RAV4 only just arriving at showrooms, Toyota has little incentive to discount it. Honda, in contrast, might have to offer some deals in order to regain shoppers’ attention.

Stay up to date with the latest year-end sales from Toyota and Honda at our Best Deals Hub.

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