As electric vehicles increasingly populate the roads, understanding the ins and outs of the EV market can equip car buyers with leverage to negotiate big savings. Currently accounting for 7.9% of new car sales in America, the EV market is undeniably expanding. However, it’s not without its challenges. We’ll delve into the complexities behind the EV market’s growth, the latest EV inventory update, and which models have the best year-end deals this December.

The Current State of the EV Market

The EV market is growing, with electric vehicles now making up 7.9% of all new car sales in America. However, the market is experiencing its share of challenges. While some new electric models fly off the lots, others linger far longer. 

What’s behind the buildup of EVs on dealer lots? First, it’s worth pointing out that OEMs have ramped up production, sending more cars to dealer lots. But as it turns out, there aren’t as many buyers as they’d hoped for. And 57% of EV buyers are still opting for a Tesla, which sells directly to consumers. Other direct-to-consumer newcomers like Rivian, Fisker, and Lucid are also growing in market share. 

On top of that, there’s a natural shift happening in the market for EVs, one that’s been expected for a while. As 2024 approaches, we’re coming to the end of the ‘early adopter’ phase of EV sales. Many of the higher-income, more tech-curious drivers who were eager to go electric have already purchased an EV. What’s left is the rest of the auto market, which makes up the vast majority of buyers.

Why aren’t more car buyers choosing an EV? The lack of reliable charging infrastructure is the most commonly cited reason, with higher prices being a close second. Another reason for EV hesitation is the uncertainty of possible repair costs outside of warranty. Sure, fuel savings can add up quickly, but what would it cost to replace a damaged battery pack? Savvy buyers want to know more about the total cost of ownership.

But make no mistake: EV sales are still growing. They’re just not growing exponentially like they did a few years ago. Here’s a look at quarterly EV market share in America over the past three years.

All analysts predict EV sales to grow in the future, but the extent of growth varies. The consensus average stands at 35% EV market share in 2030. Growth rates will have to accelerate in order to achieve that. Time flies, and we’re only six years away.

EV Inventory Rises to End 2023

At CarEdge, we preach that to find the most negotiable cars, follow the inventory numbers. A key factor in understanding these sales dynamics is Market Day Supply. This indicator shows how long it would take to sell off current inventory at recent sales rates.

The entire new car market is undergoing a rapid rise in inventory. Our latest new car inventory update shows that several domestic car brands are seeing in excess of 75 days of market supply in December. In a healthy ‘normal’ market, that number is 45 to 60 days of supply. 

EV inventory has grown steadily in 2023. CarEdge Data has revealed some eye-opening figures. New EV inventory has reached unprecedented levels.

Take the Ford Mustang Mach-E, for instance. Its supply has skyrocketed to 337 days, a stark contrast to its initial hype as a ‘Tesla-killer’. Other popular models like the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 6 are facing 125 and 156 days supply, respectively, despite their acclaimed ultra-fast charging speeds and industry accolades. The Kia EV6 is right up there too with 153 days of supply, more than double the inventory of one year ago. Nissan’s follow-up to the LEAF, the Ariya, now has an MDS of 209 days. Perhaps buyers are balking at a $50,000+ price tag for a Nissan crossover. Who would have thought?

Surprisingly, some of the least recommended EVs are selling more quickly. The Subaru Solterra actually has a relatively normal supply right now with a market day supply of 57 days. The Toyota bZ4X sits at 87 days. The Lexus RZ has 78 days of market supply. Why wouldn’t we recommend these three popular EVs for most buyers? They charge quite a bit slower than other options on the market for a similar price. Yet, loyal Subaru, Toyota and Lexus fans seem to be buying them.

Most other EV models are sitting on dealer lots for much, much longer. 

Here’s a snapshot of the current dealer inventory for new electric vehicles in America, excluding Tesla and other direct-to-consumer brands. We’ve included data from December and October to shed light on recent inventory trends:

This is NOT normal, folks. You can’t sugarcoat the fact that in America, electric vehicles are not selling as quickly as automakers had expected. That’s precisely why so many are sitting on dealer lots right now.

High interest rates are also a factor, as the cost of financing a $50,000+ vehicle is unattainable for many. The average price of an electric vehicle is $51,762 as of our latest EV price update.

Year-End EV Deals Are Here

Yes, EV inventory is sky-high, but what does this mean for potential EV buyers? First, the bad news. Our CarEdge Coaches are quite frankly shocked by how stubborn car dealers are refusing to lower EV sticker prices. Even with 150 to 300+ days of supply, up to 6 times the norm, most Ford dealers haven’t discounted Mustang Mach-Es or F-150 Lightnings. The same rings true for Mercedes-Benz’s growing electric lineup. 

The good news is that increasing inventory suggests that buyers certainly have more room to negotiate. This is especially true for models with a higher days supply. Recent spikes in EV inventory have already led to some CarEdge Community members successfully negotiating significant discounts off EV sticker prices. This trend indicates that EVs, contrary to what dealers will tell you, are indeed negotiable. Importantly, buyers should come prepared with negotiation know-how and recent car market insights. Prepare to save big on your next car with Deal School (100% FREE). 

Here’s our comprehensive list of the best year-end EV sales, along with our negotiability score based on the inventory numbers shared above:

EV Financing Offers

2023 Subaru Solterra: 0% APR for 72 months

2023 Ford Mustang Mach-E: 0.9% APR for 60 months + $3,000 cash offer+ No payments for 90 days

2024 Kia EV6: 0.9% APR for 48 months + $3,750 cash offer

2023 Nissan Ariya: 2.9% APR for 36 months + up to $3,750 cash offer

EV Lease Offers

Tesla Model 3 RWD: $329 per month for 36 months with $4,500 due

Chevrolet Bolt EUV: $369/month for 36 month with $6,659

Tesla Model Y RWD: $399 per month for 36 months with $4,500 due

Kia EV6: $379/month for 36 months with $4,999 due

2023 Subaru Solterra: $399/month with $0 down payment

BMW i4: $499/month for 36 months with $4,599 due

Volvo XC40 Recharge and Volvo C40: Up to $8,500 in lease credit for qualified lessees

See all of the best year-end car deals in December

EV Prices Are Negotiable. Approach Your Deal With Confidence

Despite dealers’ reluctance to reduce sticker prices, high inventory presents a unique negotiation opportunity for EV buyers. For those equipped with the right market insights and negotiation strategies, the end of 2023 could be the perfect time to secure big savings on an electric vehicle. 

Remember, knowledge is power in this market, and being well-informed can lead to significant savings on your next EV purchase. Keep an eye on the market trends and be ready to make a smart, well-negotiated buy as we step into the new year.

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