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May 2022 Update: About half of 2017-2019 model year Bolts have received their recall fix, which includes a brand new battery pack. The new 2022 Bolt and Bolt EUV are back on sale at dealerships, complete with their new batteries.
The newly redesigned 2022 Chevrolet Bolt has a lot going for it: sleek new looks, modern tech, a new larger variant, and most of all, a starting MSRP of just $31,000. But as you probably know by now, GM’s golden opportunity went up in smoke when Bolts began to catch fire, sometimes burning down entire homes. Once a great budget EV, the Bolt has been ordered to socially distance by at least 50 feet from any building until GM works its way through the $2 billion dollar fix to get these cars back on the road safely.
There is a fix on the way, and it’s a fix that we’d like to think can’t go wrong. All Bolts from model years 2017 to 2019 are due to receive an all-new battery free of charge, and 2020-2022 models will receive. Could the Bolt fire disaster turn out to be a good thing for consumers in the end?
The 2022 Refresh Breathes New Life Into GM’s First Dedicated EV
This is the Bolt’s first major refresh since it was unveiled in 2016. Back then, it harkened a new path for GM at a time when the future of electrified transportation was uncertain. Would EVs remain a luxury outlier for Tesla fans? Or would EVs end up appealing to the masses?
The 2017 Bolt arrived at dealerships to great fanfare, even going on to win both the North American Car of the Year and the Motor Trend Car of the Year awards in 2017. Following a few minor efficiency upgrades, by 2021 the Bolt was rated at 259 miles of range in the EPA test cycle. That’s a respectable figure even in today’s field of EVs. With the 2022 model year update came a shock to fans of affordable EVs: the 2022 Bolt had the same rated range, but it was listed for $5,500 less, new technology, curvy looks and all! It’s likely that the price drop was intended to reflect the loss of eligibility for the $7,500 federal tax credit.
Another unexpected announcement was the launch of the Bolt EUV, a larger sibling to the original compact Bolt. The new Bolt EUV is 6 inches longer with an extra 3 inches of backseat legroom. The EUV has a big tech advantage over the Bolt EV: it includes GM’s Super Cruise semi-autonomous driver assistance software. On paper, the 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV looked like great deals. Even before the big refresh, efficiency, affordability and the former eligibility for the $7,500 federal tax credit lifted the Bolt to a spot in the top five in American EV sales for four years in a row.
Bolts On Fire: What Went Wrong?
The Chevy Bolt has had its weaknesses since the beginning, but they were always manageable. A peak charging rate of 55kW that continues to this day was always the biggest inconvenience. But you get what you pay for, right? Well, no consumer should ever be cornered into an affordable vehicle that turns out to be a massive fire hazard and safety risk.
Beginning in 2017, news reports emerged of multiple Bolts catching fire in parking lots and driveways. Eventually, so many Bolts caught fire that GM issued a fix in late 2020, but it failed to solve the problem. By early 2021, the pattern was clear, and a combo recall and stop-sale were issued for all Bolts (2017-2022 model years). Production of 2022 Bolts was halted, and remains on pause through January.
We now know the root cause of the battery fires in certain Chevrolet Bolts, and it’s a defect that affects every model year in some capacity. A spokesperson for LG, the battery supplier for the Bolt, shared the cause with Consumer Reports. “GM and LG have identified the presence of two rare simultaneous defects, found in the same battery cell, made during the module manufacturing process.” GM explained that the cause is a torn anode tab and folded separator within the battery modules. What it comes down to is two very rare defects simultaneously occurring in the same battery cells.
GM Has a Fix, but it’s Costing the Automaker Billions
GM has to be furious with LG for supplying dangerous batteries to its car that was destined for mass appeal. There’s nothing appealing about buying a $30,000 fire hazard, not to mention the hassle of returning the vehicle for the recall. But it looks like the two behemoths have reached a deal. LG has agreed to compensate GM for the costs associated with the recall. When all is said and done (sometime in 2022), LG will be paying GM about $2 billion.
GM is going to replace all battery packs in 2017-2019 Bolts and will replace defective battery modules (partial replacement) in 2020-2022 Bolt EVs and EUVs. Repaired Bolts will come with a new eight-year, 100,000-mile limited warranty. GM will prioritize customers who have Bolts at the highest risk, but they’re not ready to release a timeline for completion, pending battery availabilty from the supplier. It’s looking like it may take a full year to complete the recall repairs.
As of December 2021, GM has started scheduling dealership visits to install a software upgrade for all eligible Bolts. The upgrade is “designed to detect specific abnormalities that might indicate a damaged battery in Bolt EVs and EUVs by monitoring the battery performance and alerting customers of any anomalies.” GM has not yet implemented over-the-air updates like Tesla, Ford and Volkswagen, so Bolt owners will have to visit a dealership to get the software fix.
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CarEdge’s Take: Should You Consider the 2022 Chevrolet Bolt EV?
Don’t rush out to buy a 2022 Bolt. There’s a stop-sale in effect, so you couldn’t buy one even if you tried. Considering the immense resources GM has thrown at this debacle, once all Bolts are fixed, it’s highly likely that the Bolt will return to its former glory as a true EV bargain worth checking out. The automaker’s engineers MUST have thoroughly investigated and fixed the problems, right? Unfortunately, due to LG’s battery production backlog, the Bolt probably won’t be worth considering until 2023.
Let’s time travel to 2023 together and forget about the battery recall for just a moment. The 2022 Chevrolet Bolt offers 259 miles of range, a modernized interior and refreshing exterior, all for a base MSRP of $31,000. In several states, the effective price of a 2022 Bolt can easily fall under $27,000, even though it no longer qualifies for the federal EV tax credit. If revisions to the EV tax credit ever make their way through congress, the Bolt might even become a $20k car. That’s a steal! Proceed with caution and patience, and give GM and LG time to clean up their mess. Plus, there are dozens of other EVs arriving on American roads in 2022. The EV market is far different heading into 2022 than it was when the first generation Bolt arrived in 2016.
Even with the battery fixes, the Bolt still suffers from a poor charging rate of just 55 kW. If you roadtrip often, that will be an issue. Whereas the new 2022 Hyundai IONIQ 5 can recharge from 10-80% (over 200 miles of range) in just 18 minutes, the same charging session would take a full hour in a 2022 Bolt. If you’re on the market for a budget EV, the 2022 Chevrolet Bolt just might be worth a test drive, but not until GM wraps up the ongoing recall fixes. And that might take a whole year. Stay tuned to CarEdge for the latest EV information, car reviews and industry insights.
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The Chevrolet Bolt’s recent fall from grace has had many EV-curious drivers wondering if EVs are even safe to drive. A quick look at US vehicular fire data makes it clear that car fires were a problem long before EVs (hey Ford Pinto!), but EVs do bring new challenges to automotive safety. Any material that can store enough energy to power a car, whether batteries or gasoline, is capable of volatility and potential safety hazards. However, a closer look at the statistics reveals surprising trends and comparisons. Will the dozens of EVs coming to market in 2022 face the same issues of older models? It’s important to get to the bottom of this. Your advocates at CarEdge will keep you informed with the latest information. Here’s what we know.
What Can We Learn From the Data?
Data compiled by the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and the US Department of Transportation shows that among all vehicle types, there’s an average of one vehicle fire per 19 million miles driven. Both the NFPA and the Center for Auto Safety say there is not yet a centralized database for electric vehicle fire statistics. In an effort to address the lack of information surrounding EV battery fires, Tesla decided to begin releasing statistics in their annual impact reports.
Tesla’s 2020 Impact Report says that from 2012-2020, there’s been one Tesla fire per 205 million miles traveled. The fact that Tesla models made up 79% of American EV sales in 2020 highlights the relevance of their data. Unfortunately, other automakers haven’t released comparable data (we’re looking at you GM!). We’re hopeful that will change soon.
This comparison doesn’t hide the fact that some EV models have had major problems. Most notably, the ongoing Chevrolet Bolt recall is costing GM and battery supplier LG a few billion dollars to resolve. The Hyundai Kona briefly made headlines with multiple fires. It seems like every Tesla fire makes it into the news. Henrik Fisker’s first shot at launching an automotive brand ended in tears when Hurricane Sandy flooded dozens of early Karma’s with saltwater, resulting in some setting ablaze. EV fires are real, and every one is serious and worthy of proper investigation.
What Causes Electric Vehicle Fires?
An in-depth study of EV battery fires conducted by the NTSB found that most incidents are caused by a dangerous phenomenon known as thermal runaway. All modern electric vehicles have a thermal management system of some sort. Thermal management keeps the battery operating within the ideal range for performance and safety. Some thermal management systems use liquid coolants, others employ air or refrigerant coolants. But these systems are only designed to work during normal operating conditions. When a battery is punctured or contains manufacturing defects, a short circuit can occur when the anode and cathode come in contact. A shorted circuit can cause rapid thermal runaway. Simply put, if a damaged or defective battery malfunctions, it produces a lot of heat, and may result in a fire.
The Chevy Bolt Recall Brings Attention to EV Safety
A spokesperson for LG, the battery supplier for the Bolt, shared the cause of the recent fires with Consumer Reports. “GM and LG have identified the presence of two rare simultaneous defects, found in the same battery cell, made during the module manufacturing process.” GM explained that the cause is a torn anode tab and folded separator within the batteries. What it comes down to is two very rare defects simultaneously occurring in the same battery cells.
As of December 2021, GM is just beginning the recall process. Owners of 2017-2019 Bolts will receive an all-new battery pack. Affected 2020-2022 cars will receive replacement batteries for the affected modules. Will the fix take care of the hazard once and for all? Considering the massive engineering effort that has gone into identifying the problem and proposing a solution, Chevy Bolts will likely have undergone even more safety checks than most cars are ever subjected to.
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How Many Teslas Catch On Fire?
Anytime a Tesla goes up in flames, it’s sure to make the news. But how common are Tesla fires compared to combustion vehicle fires? Engineers (and nervous investors) have looked into every incident, and here is what they’ve found. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson found reports of about 160 Tesla vehicle fires as of 2020, when there were 1 million Teslas on the road globally. That works out to about 0.01% of Teslas being involved in fire incidents, a figure that is less than most other OEMs.
The high publicity of Tesla’s isolated fire events prompted the automaker to address the topic directly in their own 2020 Impact Report. Tesla says there has been approximately one Tesla vehicle fire for every 205 million miles traveled. The report goes on to point out that analyses of combustion-powered vehicle fires conducted by the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and U.S. Department of Transportation shows one fire for every 19 million miles travelled. As Elon Musk once spouted on his infamous Twitter account, “Not super surprising, given that internal combustion engine cars literally have ‘combustion’ in their name.”
Perhaps one reason Tesla has avoided the major recalls that the Chevy Bolt, Hyundai Kona and some hybrids have faced is the fact that Tesla regularly pushes over-the-air updates to all of their cars. If a thermal management issue is ever discovered by their engineers, for example, it would most likely be solved with a quick software update. Most automakers have yet to implement OTA updates at this level of precision, but Ford, Volkswagen and even GM are coming around to the idea.
Firefighters Struggle With EV Incidents
Although the data clearly shows that EVs are less prone to car fires than combustion vehicles, there are major safety concerns for the firefighters who extinguish the flames when an EV fire does occur. Firefighters need special training to learn how to safely approach EV-related incidents, but only two-thirds of departments have had the opportunity due to funding constraints.
EV battery fires require A LOT more water to extinguish. Tesla’s First Responders Guide recommends 3,000 to 8,000 gallons of water on hand to put out a Tesla fire. Some fires have needed 30,000 gallons of water to extinguish. Basically, firefighters have to do whatever it takes to cool down the battery, and that’s really hard to do with so much energy densely packed into the pack. Once the fire appears fully extinguished, there’s a chance it could still flare up, even days later. Towing services and junkyards are advised to park damaged electric vehicles at least 50 feet from other vehicles in the yard. As EVs become more popular, that might not be feasible in just a few years.
The National Transportation Safety Board’s (NTSB) review of emergency response guidelines from 36 EV manufacturers found that all had ways to mitigate the risk of high-voltage shocks, but none of the guides addressed how to reduce the risk posed by energy stored in the batteries, such as procedures for minimizing reignition or instructions on where and how to spray water to cool the batteries. Clearly, EV automakers have some serious work to do for the safety of first responders.
The Road Ahead: How Engineers and Automakers Are Making EVs Safer
Although EV battery fires are still infrequent compared to traditional vehicles, there are still ways to make EVs safer. Solid state batteries are nearly ready for mass production. They promise to revolutionize the automotive industry with extreme efficiency, affordability and incredible duration. The solid electrolyte that lies within is less volatile than the liquid electrolytes used in today’s lithium ion batteries. Solid Power, a leading solid state battery developer, has conducted third-party testing to examine the safety of solid state batteries when they’re exposed to stressors such as puncture or short-circuiting. No fires occurred at all during laboratory testing, only voltage loss.
Over-the-air updates will soon be a feature (or add-on) of most vehicles on the market. OTA updates present an opportunity for automakers to address future battery safety concerns without even needing to issue a full recall. Tesla’s leadership in OTA updates set an example that legacy OEMs are following.
Early on during the rise of EVs (2012-2017), batteries had never before been produced at such high volumes. New manufacturing techniques were needed, and assembly lines had to flush out the usual inefficiencies that affect any new manufacturing process at scale. Now that EV production is maturing and battery suppliers have been at it for a decade or more, engineers, chemists and industrial designers are well-versed in the best practices of making batteries that are both cost effective and safe. Just like with refining and transporting petroleum products, battery production can go wrong if safety and sound engineering aren’t top of mind.
CarEdge’s Take On EV Battery Fires
More data is needed, but Tesla’s 2020 Impact Report provides the best look yet at how common EV battery fires are in comparison to non-electric vehicles. Tesla EVs make up 79% of American EV sales, so their data are somewhat representative of the EV market as a whole. The statistics suggest that Teslas are far less prone to fire than combustion vehicles, which is a very different story than one would gather from watching the news. However, Tesla’s overall reliability ratings remain low, which is concerning in its own right.
What about other EV makers? With popular models like the Ford Mustang Mach-E, Volkswagen ID.4 and Hyundai IONIQ 5 hitting the roads this year, we should have more data soon. Every publicized EV fire damages consumer sentiment about the shift to electrification. Surely, automakers investing over $300 billion in EVs would throw everything they’ve got at fixing safety hazards and ensuring that EVs are the safest cars on the road. At CarEdge, we’ll continue to monitor the latest and we’ll bring you any updates as EVs go mainstream in 2022.
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If America is to go electric as the automakers claim, access to EV charging stations will have to grow exponentially in just the next few years. As it stands today, there are 63,000 public charging stations, but only 17,460 are fast chargers. That works out to just 37 charging ports per 100,000 Americans. Industry experts estimate the US will need more than 100,000 public fast chargers for the 22 million EVs that are expected to hit American roads by 2030.
Most charging is done at home, but public chargers are an important piece of the puzzle. They are essential for interstate travel and road trips. Will hitting the road in an EV ever be as simple and hassle-free as it is in a combustion vehicle? Here are the latest developments in the world of EV charging access.
The 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill Allocates $5 Billion for Charging
President Biden, the US Department of Transportation, and the US Department of Energy announced the allocation of $5 billion over five years for the establishment of a National EV Charging Network. The funding is made possible by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which was signed into law in November of 2021.
The chief goal of the charging funds is to create a network of EV charging stations along the Interstate Highway System. The total amount available to states in 2022 is $615 million, but states must submit an EV Infrastructure Deployment Plan before they can access these funds. A second, competitive grant program designed to further increase EV charging access in locations throughout the country, including in rural and underserved communities, will be announced later this year.
Learn more about how much each state is receiving to build electric car charging stations here.
Utilities Come Together to Create the National Electric Highway Coalition
Although EVs only made up 5% of US passenger vehicle sales through mid-2021, a recent survey found that 39% of Americans say they are likely to purchase an EV for their next vehicle. On top of that, OEM executives expect half of all sales to be electric in 2030, just eight years ahead. Taken together, this points towards a future where EVs are no longer fringe models with limited audiences; EVs are going mainstream.
Over 80% of charging is done at home at very affordable residential rates. The remainder is at public charging stations that vary widely in pricing. In the states that lead in EV ownership, existing charging stations often have long wait times during periods of busy travel. The need for more public charging presents a business opportunity just waiting to be taken advantage of, and now the big utilities are taking notice.
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Just this month, the Edison Electric Institute (EEI), an association representing US utilities, announced a monumental initiative to combine the forces of 51 investor-owned electric companies, one electric cooperative, and the Tennessee Valley Authority. This new coalition is a coordinated effort to install thousands of fast charging ports along major U.S. travel corridors by the end of 2023. The coalition members are committing $3 billion of their own money to bring fast chargers online over the next two years.
The 2021 bipartisan infrastructure package passed by congress allocates $7.5 billion for the expansion of charging to 500,000 charging plugs nationwide. The administration announced plans to designate highways as “corridor-ready” for electric vehicles, meaning charging stations are located no more than 50 miles apart and no more than five miles off the highway.
Updated: Will Tesla’s Supercharger Network Ever Open to Non-Tesla EVs?
For most of the last decade, Tesla’s Supercharger network was the only nationwide fast-charging network for EV owners. It was long rumored that Tesla was on the verge of opening select Supercharger locations to all EV owners, but it appears that North American Tesla Superchargers will remain a walled garden for now. Tesla has already opened Supercharger access to all in France, The Netherlands, and Norway. Non-Teslas pay a higher price for charging, and Tesla says that will fund the continued growth of the network.
Electrify America Will Double Its Network by 2025
One outcome of the Volkswagen dieselgate debacle was the creation of Electrify America, a VW-funded nationwide charging network in the US. After a rocky start plagued by unreliability and low use, things are looking up for EA. This past summer, EA announced their “Boost Plan” to more than double their current EV charging infrastructure in the United States and Canada. At the end of 2021, EA has completed nearly 800 charging stations with a total of 3,500 charge ports. By the end of 2025, EA plans to have more than 1,800 fast charging stations and 10,000 individual chargers installed.
The all-new Volkswagen ID.4 electric crossover comes with three years of free fast charging at Electrify America stations. Hyundai and Ford are also offering limited free charging incentives for their EVs. As the networks expand, the value of these free charging incentives will grow.
Other Automakers are Offering Charging Networks, Either Through Partnerships or Independently
Legacy automakers and EV startups have plans to make public charging easier for their customers. GM announced Ultium Charge 360, a plan that will integrate charging networks for seamless use with all GM vehicles. They’ve established partnerships with EVgo, Blink, ChargePoint and other big names in North America. Furthermore, GM’s new Dealer Community Charging Program will see dealerships playing an active role in bringing 40,000 level 2 chargers to underserved communities, including rural and urban locations.
Ford’s BlueOval charging network makes plug-and-charge possible for the Mustang Mach-E and future EV models, a nod to Tesla’s plug-and-charge popularity. Ford says that they want charging an EV to be as simple as stopping at a gas station.
By the end of 2023, Rivian’s Adventure Network of chargers will have 3,500 fast chargers installed at 600 sites in North America. Rivian’s brand targets outdoor enthusiasts and overlanding types, so the new network will cater to EV owners who venture off the beaten path. At first, the Rivian Adventure Network will be exclusive to Rivian owners, but the company says they will open it up to other EV brands shortly after. This is a big deal for EV owners looking for zero-emissions wilderness adventures, especially considering that the much-hyped Subaru Solterra all-wheel drive EV barely makes it 220 miles on a charge.
Will EV Charging Stations Replace Gas Stations?
The short answer is no, not for decades, if ever. However, more and more gas stations are adding fast chargers to their parking lots. Sheetz, a popular gas station chain in the East, has been the site of many Tesla Superchargers. In Maryland, one gas station ditched gas entirely for EV charging stations. The new infrastructure bill’s $7.5 billion for EV charging will bring chargers to more gas stations, truck stops and interstate rest areas. The Department of Energy already keeps track of every fast charging station in the nation, and even has a neat map of stations to explore.
Retailers are seeing the benefits of hosting EV charging. Most Electrify America stations are located in Walmart or Target parking lots in close proximity to dining and shopping. Movie theaters and shopping malls often offer free charging for customers. This is a trend we expect to continue, bringing convenience and the occasional free charge to EV owners.
CarEdge’s Take On the Future of Charging in America
EV charging stations are great for highway adventures, but it’s important to remember that EV owners who rely on public charging will spend far more on charging than those who charge mostly at home. EV drivers who pay for public charging will see a much higher total cost of ownership, possibly even approaching that of a combustion vehicle.
More EV models are making their debut in 2022, and almost all of them charge at over 150 kW. This is great for those wanting to go electric yet dreading long waits at a charger. The next two years will transform the experience of EV ownership in America. With so many new fast chargers coming online and even better models to choose from, EV technology just might be maturing right as American infrastructure catches up with demand.
This year’s LA Auto Show marks a turning point for the auto industry. What seemed unlikely a decade ago is now very real: like it or not, OEMs are committed to electrification. There are a whole host of reasons for the shift, from international climate initiatives and clean transport incentives, to simply responding to Tesla overtaking market share. Every automaker has its own strategy. Some are going it alone, while many are laying the groundwork for new partnerships with competitors. And as 2021 comes to a close, all OEMs have at least this in common: they’re planning to electrify and they’re spending a LOT of money doing it. Here are the latest updates on the major players in the North American auto market.
Nissan, an Early EV Pioneer, Is Now Playing Catch Up
The 2011 Nissan Leaf changed the world and spurred interest in electrified transportation. The Leaf led EV sales for several years before falling behind the likes of the Chevrolet Bolt and the Tesla lineup. The turmoil of Nissan’s leadership surely didn’t do electrification any favors. But here we are, a decade after they brought EVs to the masses, and Nissan has unveiled the successor to the Leaf, the 2023 Nissan Ariya. This compact crossover is the start of something bigger.
The Japanese OEM just announced ‘Ambition 2030’, a roadmap for electrification. In just five years time, Nissan says it will spend at least $17.6 billion in EVs and battery tech. That includes the engineering and production of its own solid-state battery by 2028, which would be a major feat for any automaker. Another part of the investment is a new $1.3 billion electric vehicle hub in England where it will build an all-electric crossover. By 2030, Nissan says that half of their lineup will be EVs. Will it be enough to reclaim EV dominance?
Ford Keeps Upping Its Commitment to Electrification….and Teasing Us with Retro Concept EVs
Ford is determined to catch up to Tesla, and they’re not afraid to say that publicly. Having acknowledged their status as an EV underdog, Ford isn’t making any excuses. Instead, they’re writing checks. The Detroit giant is spending $22 billion through 2025 to electrify its lineup, starting with the 2021 Mustang Mach-E, a controversially-named top seller and Tesla Model Y competitor.
Next up, the F-150 Lightning. Ford is so confident in its electrification strategy that it’s giving its best-selling model the EV treatment. With over 200,000 reservations in the books, it looks like Ford has their work laid out for them. Ford says that F-150 Lightning reservations placed today may not be delivered until 2024 due to order backlogs.
In an even greater leap towards an EV future, Ford announced BlueOval City, which they call Ford’s “largest, most advanced, most efficient auto production complex.” The massive facility will be constructed on a nearly 6-square-mile site in Tennessee. It will produce F-series electric trucks and Ford’s future battery platforms. Moreover, a new BlueOval SK Battery Park is to be built in Kentucky with the goal of powering a new lineup of Ford and Lincoln EVs.
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GM Is Spending Big Money, but Where Are the Cars?
GM plans to stop selling combustion vehicles by 2035, so that means one of two things: GM is either going all-in with EVs, or they plan to go out of business. Jokes aside, the General is playing the long game. GM has been investing heavily in the development of its proprietary Ultium battery technology as it prepares to launch a slew of EVs.
Unless you’ve been living under an automotive rock for the past year, you probably know that the Chevy Bolt has been going through some rough times to say the least. Battery fires have been traced to problems with how LG Energy Solutions engineered the battery pack for GM. There’s a stop-sale on new Bolt’s, and all Bolt owners are advised to park away from buildings and limit charging to 80%. The automaker has to spend $1.8 billion fixing the Bolt recall, so I’m sure they will want to avoid similar problems going forward. GM’s Bolt blunder is certainly going to turn a lot of folks away from EVs, so here’s hoping that their new Ultium platform can convince the public that their EVs are worth a test drive.
2021 has arguably been the turning point for the automotive industry. Now that the future points towards electrification, OEMs like GM are increasing their planned investments in EVs and their infrastructure ecosystem. For example, GM recently announced that they are increasing their commitment to develop EVs and autonomous vehicles by $8 billion additional dollars by 2025, amounting to a total commitment of $35 billion. In a recent press release, GM shared that they intend for combustion-powered sales to fuel their growth strategy. The roadmap includes working with partners to build new battery facilities, creating a charging network, and converting the entire Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly center into ‘Factory Zero’, an all-EV production center with over 4 million square feet.
The Cadillac brand will be exclusively electric by 2030, and the highly-praised Cadillac Lyric EV is almost here. And of course there’s the $100,000+ GMC Hummer EV coming out next year. But we’ll know Chevrolet is serious about EVs when there’s an electric Silverado, which is scheduled to arrive in 2023-2024. The automaker is relying on the new Ultium batteries to produce a desirable electric truck with a range of up to 400 miles on a charge at a compelling price point.
Stellantis: It’s Complicated
Now that Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) and PSA Group (European brands Peugeot, Citroen and more) have merged to create Stellantis, the conglomerate is trying to agree on a path forward towards electrification. Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares recently complained to Reuters about the added costs of engineering and building EVs, which isn’t surprising considering that subsidiary Ferrari publicly says they aren’t very interested in electrification.
Despite the dread of some of the leadership, Stellantis is far more committed to EVs than FCA was on its own. At ‘Stellantis EV Day 2021’, the group announced $35.5 billion in EV investment through 2025. Every Jeep will have an electrified option by 2025, and an electric Ram 1500 pickup truck and Dodge performance EV will hit the roads by the same year. Their target for North America is 40% electrification (including plug-in hybrids) in 2025.
The Korean OEM’s are On a Roll
Not only is Hyundai-Kia on a roll, they are investing heavily in American manufacturing for their rapidly electrifying lineup. They recently shared a $7.4 billion investment in America between now and 2025, with the goal of producing American-made battery electric vehicles. Hyundai-Kia is also investing heavily in autonomous vehicle development and urban air mobility. You know, as in flying cars. By 2025, they plan to have 23 EVs and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on the market, with more to follow. So there’s a lot to look forward to from the group.
Hyundai’s retro-inspired yet very futuristic IONIQ 5 has garnered attention at the 2021 LA Auto Show along with its sibling, the Kia EV6. Hyundai’s Kona EV has sold well, but it doesn’t turn any heads. The next generation of electric Hyundai’s and Kia’s are sure to change that if the Kia EV9 and Hyundai IONIQ 7 are any indication of what’s to come.
Honda, Mazda and Subaru are Making Incremental Changes
Honda doesn’t have a single dedicated EV in the North American market, but has had success with its funky Honda ‘e’ in Europe. Nevertheless, Honda has big plans. CEO Toshihiro Mibe recently shared that the automaker is aiming for 2040 vehicle sales to be 100% EVs and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. They expect that figure to reach 40% by 2030. As far as investment goes, Honda is putting their money where their mouth is and investing $46.3 billion in research and development initiatives, including electrification, over the next six years. But there’s a long way to go. In 2020, Honda sold 4.46 million cars globally, but only 14,000 were electric.
When will Honda begin to make a splash in the American EV market? Well, no sooner than late 2023. Honda’s pride and joy is the upcoming 2024 Prologue EV, a SUV that will use GM’s Ultium battery platform. You read that right. Honda is depending on GM to deliver the most important part of their most important car of the decade. The EVs in development will surely have Acura-branded counterparts too.
In 2025, Mazda plans to introduce a unique EV platform, ‘SkyActive EV Scalable Architecture.’ For now, Mazda only intends to bring three full EVs to the American market by 2025. The company’s first, the MX-30, is out now in California and includes a very insufficient estimated range of 100 miles. For perspective, a 2013 Nissan Leaf got better miles than that. We’ll see if Mazda gets serious about EVs with an accelerated timeline.
Subaru has been receiving plenty of attention as of late for its fruitful collaboration with Toyota to produce a new EV platform that both automakers will use for the time being. The 2021 LA Auto Show has featured the unveiling of the first all-electric all-wheel drive Subaru, the 2023 Subaru Solterra. It’s the sister to Toyota’s new bZ4X EV. Subaru is playing a bit of catch up in the electrified all-wheel drive space, but they have a plan. They recently announced plans for a new $272 million dollar R&D center in Tokyo that will employ some 2,800 people with the goal of facilitating the push to EVs.
And Then There’s Toyota, Slowly Moving From Hybrids to EVs
In 1995, Toyota made headlines when it unveiled a concept car at the Tokyo Auto Show that was powered by both combustion and electric motors. This concept would go on to become the first mass-produced hybrid, the 1997 Toyota Prius. 25 years later, the hybrid pioneer is lagging behind other automakers in the push to further electrify. As recently as this year, Toyota and Lexus have frequently trash talked EVs. From claiming that they prefer “self-charging hybrids” (there’s no such thing!!!), to investing heavily in the incredibly inconvenient hydrogen-powered Mirai, Toyota has kicked the ball down the road for the last decade when it comes to electrification. But things started to accelerate in 2019 when Toyota expanded its existing partnership with Subaru to include the development of a battery electric vehicle.
At the 2021 LA Auto Show, we got our first look at the fruits of the Toyota-Subaru collab. On Toyota’s side, the result is a compelling EV with an eye-rolling name: the 2022 Toyota bZ4X. Apparently bZ stands for beyond zero, as in zero emissions. Subaru simultaneously unveiled its first all-electric all-wheel drive vehicle, the Solterra.
So Toyota is off to the races. What’s next in their roadmap to electrification? In October, Toyota announced plans to invest $3.4 billion in US-built batteries through 2030. Globally, Toyota says it’s investing $13.5 billion in battery development, with the headline goal of reducing battery costs by 50% by 2030. They’ve also established a partnership with Panasonic for battery R&D. Toyota plans to expand the Beyond Zero line of cars into seven different models by 2025, and an additional eight EVs will be introduced into other Toyota segments. If all goes as planned, Toyota’s lineup will be hardly recognizable five years from now.
German Automakers Are Leading the Way in Europe, Is America Next?
In Europe, German EVs are arguably the face of electrification. While it’s true that Tesla and Asian EVs are quickly making inroads, Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche are doing very well in the European EV market. The irony? Volkswagen Group’s electric leadership came directly out of the dieselgate emissions scandal. Following the debacle, VW intended to rebrand itself as an automaker committed to righting wrongs and going green once and for all. And to a large extent, the rebranding has been a success.
VW Group has allocated over $86 billion for technology development between now and 2025. CEO Herbert Diess says that nearly all of it will be spent on electrification initiatives. In fact, he recently shared with CNBC that VW aims to have at least 50% of total vehicle sales to be electric by 2030.
Here in the US, VW has already started converting a large portion of its Chattanooga, Tennessee factory into a production facility for American-made ID.4 electric crossovers. The conversion will cost about $800 million. The Chattanooga factory recently celebrated its 10th anniversary, and over 3,800 people are employed there.
The Porsche Taycan has seen immense success and rave reviews. It’s the top-selling non-SUV Porsche of 2021, despite a sticker price that stretches from $94,000 to $188,000. Porsche, a subsidiary of Volkswagen Group, has led the electrification of luxury performance in Europe. They’re also investing in a network of public fast-chargers and destination chargers. At least 7,500 charging points are going to be available worldwide by 2025. This is all part of Porsche’s plan to spend about $17 billion on electrification through 2025.
BMW has been a bit of an internal combustion holdout. Not long ago, CEO Oliver Zipse declared that gas engine development will continue and that demand for internal combustion “will remain robust for many years to come.” However, even Zipse says that he expects BMW’s EV sales to grow by at least 50% year-over-year for at least the next few years. By 2025, they expect 25% of BMW’s sales to be EVs. What about investment? The latest tally shows BMW has plans to invest $23.8 billion in battery technology and EVs. They seem to be dabbling in hydrogen fuel cells too, a technology that has yet to show scalable promise.
Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler announced in July that it intends to invest $47 billion in electrification by 2030, with the explicit goal of taking on Tesla. Daimler says that the overhaul of operations could result in job cuts. Most notably, the transition will result in an 80% drop in combustion engine investments by 2026, just five years from now. In essence, Mercedes-Benz is going all in for EVs. Daimler recently purchased British electric motor engineering firm YASA Limited, and is making strides towards battery development.
Is It Enough to Catch Up to Tesla?
Legacy OEM’s have a solid shot at catching up to Tesla, but there’s also the possibility that we’re witnessing a great realigning of sorts in the North American auto industry. As it stands today, Ford, Volkswagen Group, GM and Hyundai-Kia are best positioned to dominate the EV industry alongside Tesla, but all OEM’s are throwing money and infrastructure at electrification. What do you think the outcome will be? Will the big three and German giants be as powerful in a decade as they are now? Only time, money and a battery-powered arms race will tell.
