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Negative equity, or owing more on a car loan than the vehicle’s market value, continues to rise as inflationary pressures and long loan terms take their toll on car buyers. CarEdge, in partnership with Black Book, surveyed 474 drivers in Q4 2024 to uncover the state of vehicle equity. Here are the highlights and the broader implications for drivers, car buyers, and the automotive industry.
In Q4 2024, 39% of drivers who financed their vehicles were underwater—up from 31% in Q3, a 25% jump. For cars purchased since 2022, the situation is even worse: 44% of these buyers owe more than their car is worth. As depreciation accelerates and long-term loans become the norm, the risk of negative equity continues to grow. This trend highlights a troubling financial burden on drivers and poses risks for the broader auto market.
Drivers Overestimate Their Car’s Value
Our survey reveals that 60% of drivers believe their car is worth more than its actual trade-in value. Of these, 18% overestimate by $5,000 or more, and 7% by over $10,000. This disconnect leads many to carry negative equity into their next car purchase, perpetuating financial strain.
When drivers attempt to trade in or sell their vehicles, they often face the harsh reality of lower-than-expected offers, which can derail their car-buying plans. Unfortunately, many choose to roll over the remaining debt into their next loan. This practice, while common, leads to higher monthly payments and extended loan terms, keeping buyers in a cycle of financial vulnerability.
Long Loan Terms Drive Negative Equity
Loan terms significantly impact vehicle equity. Borrowers with 84-month loans face a median negative equity of -$8,485, while those with shorter 36-month terms have a positive median equity of $7,783. While longer loans make monthly payments more affordable, they also leave buyers trapped in equity-negative positions for years.
For many buyers, the appeal of lower monthly payments outweighs the long-term risks. However, as loan balances decrease more slowly with longer terms, these borrowers are more likely to face financial strain when attempting to sell or trade in their vehicles. Buyers who opt for shorter terms and make larger down payments tend to build equity more quickly, putting them in stronger financial positions.
EV Owners Are Most at Risk
Electric vehicle owners face the highest negative equity rates, with 54% underwater and a median equity of -$2,345. This makes EVs particularly vulnerable compared to gas and hybrid vehicles, which are more likely to have positive equity.
The rapid depreciation of EVs is a key driver of this trend. EV technology can become outdated quickly as newer models with improved range, charging speeds, and driver assistance features enter the market. Additionally, concerns about costly battery replacements and limited resale demand have led many buyers to prefer new EVs with warranties and a known history, further impacting the resale value of used EVs.
For EV buyers, understanding depreciation trends and factoring in long-term costs is critical to avoiding significant negative equity. Opting for shorter loan terms and considering potential incentives or tax credits can help offset some of the financial risks. Buyers who plan to hold on to their EVs for longer than just a few years are less likely to be impacted by negative equity with their auto loans.
What Does This Mean for 2025?
As we head into 2025, the issue of negative equity looms large for both consumers and the auto industry. For car buyers, rolling over negative equity into new loans can lead to long-term financial stress, reducing their purchasing power and limiting options. For the auto industry, high levels of negative equity could dampen trade-ins and slow new car sales, forcing automakers and dealerships to adjust their strategies.
Car dealers also face challenges when appraising trade-ins with negative equity. To close deals, dealers may need to discount new vehicles more aggressively or offer creative financing solutions, which can erode profit margins. Over time, high levels of negative equity in the market can disrupt the typical sales cycle
Navigating the Negative Equity Challenge
The Q4 2024 Negative Equity Report paints a clear picture of a growing issue in the car market. Drivers, car buyers, and the auto industry alike must address the challenges posed by rising negative equity.
CarEdge remains committed to empowering consumers with tools and insights to navigate today’s challenging car market. To avoid falling into the negative equity trap, car buyers should prioritize shorter loan terms, be familiar with expected car depreciation, and monitor used car values with tools like Black Book. Overcoming negative equity is possible when drivers make informed car buying and ownership decisions.
Negative equity, or being “underwater” on a car loan, is becoming a growing issue for many drivers in today’s market. As vehicle prices soar and depreciation accelerates, more car owners are finding themselves owing more on their loans than their cars are worth. CarEdge, in partnership with Black Book, surveyed nearly 1,000 drivers to understand the extent of this problem in Q3 2024. Here are the key findings.
According to our survey, 31% of drivers who financed their vehicles are currently in negative equity. This number rises to 39% for vehicles purchased since 2022, indicating that newer car buyers are especially vulnerable. As vehicle prices increase and long loan terms become more common, the risk of being underwater is higher than ever.
Most Drivers Overestimate Their Vehicle’s Value
A staggering 61% of surveyed drivers overestimate how much their cars are worth, with 17% believing their vehicle is worth at least $5,000 more than its true trade-in value. This disconnect can lead to unpleasant surprises when drivers try to trade in or sell their cars, often rolling over negative equity into their next auto loan and perpetuating the cycle.
Longer Loan Terms Lead to Greater Negative Equity
Our data shows that loan terms directly impact vehicle equity. Car owners with 84-month loan terms are nearly $5,000 underwater on average, while those with 36-month loans typically have $12,340 in equity. Although longer loans reduce monthly payments, they also increase the likelihood of negative equity in the long term.
EV and Luxury Car Owners Are Hit Hardest
Electric vehicle owners are significantly more likely to be underwater. Of the EV owners we surveyed, 46% are currently in negative equity, with a median loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 0.94—higher than the broader market’s 0.73. Luxury car brands like Tesla and BMW also see higher rates of negative equity compared to budget brands like Toyota and Honda.
A Concerning Trend for 2025
As more drivers find themselves underwater on their car loans, the negative equity issue is poised to become a major challenge for car owners and the auto industry alike. While budget car buyers may fare better, EV and luxury car owners are disproportionately affected.
CarEdge remains committed to providing insights and tools to help consumers navigate today’s car market. To learn more about vehicle equity and stay informed on auto news and market trends, visit CarEdge for expert analysis and guidance. For more information about Black Book’s industry-leading data and analytics, visit BlackBook.com.
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