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Each day we get asked, “When will car prices drop?” Fortunately, today we have good news to share; used car prices are starting to fall as you’re reading this.
At wholesale auctions, used car prices have dropped for seven weeks in a row. This week’s wholesale declines were so steep that the analysts at Black Book said it was reminiscent of declines seen at the start of the pandemic. If wholesale used car prices are dropping so much, why haven’t we seen an equally steep decline in retail prices? Well, we are just starting to.
In today’s turbulent world, there’s only so much we can confidently assume when drawing connections between the automotive market of the past and present. But the data is still useful. By taking a look at similar trends from years past, we can start to understand when retail car prices are likely to drop, which vehicles are likely to drop the most, by how much, and how you can approach negotiations.
Let’s dive in.
Retail Price Trends Lag Behind Changes at Wholesale Auctions
Historically, retail used car prices lag 4 to 6 weeks behind wholesale prices. We started to see significant wholesale price declines in the last week of June, and more so by mid-July. Take a look at the last 8 weeks of wholesale car prices:
+0.10% the week of June 20
-0.02% the week of June 27
-0.15% the week of July 4
-0.35% the week of July 11
-0.45% the week of July 18
-0.47% the week of July 25
-0.86% the week of August 1
-0.89% the week of August 8
Since early July, wholesale used car prices have dropped -3.19%, and some vehicle segments are down more than 5%. You may be asking why retail prices haven’t started dropping if wholesale prices started their downward trend seven weeks ago. Until the week of July 18, the wholesale declines were slight. Basically, they were within the ‘margin of error’, and the change wasn’t yet large enough to draw any big conclusions. When we started to see declines of -0.45% to -0.89% in a single week, that was the surefire indication that the price drop is real, and the bubble may even be bursting.
If used car prices are on track to follow a trajectory similar to what was seen when prices dropped in 2008 and 2020, we’d expect to see real declines 4 to 6 weeks after the start of significant declines. So when did the clock start? Conservatively, the first week of August was the first week of major declines. Wholesale used car prices dropped -0.86% last week alone. Looking ahead, we can expect retail used car prices to drop meaningfully starting in early- to mid-September. This coincides with a likely increase in repo cars that will also drive used car prices lower too.
While advertised retail prices may not be lower (why would a dealer drop their advertised price if they can find a customer willing to pay an inflated price?), we have heard more and more stories from our community of successful negotiations taking thousands of dollars off of used car deals. Negotiating on a used car is possible, and you should be encouraged to do it.
Luxury Models and Large SUVs Likely to Drop the Most
Used truck and SUV prices, August 8, 2022. Source: Black Book
The past month of wholesale data shows that luxury vehicle and larger SUV segments are on track to see the steepest price declines. Why? Their prices have been the most inflated over the past 18 months, and consumer demand for high price vehicles is decreasing rapidly. The week of August 8, every luxury segment dropped by at least -1.24% week over week. Sub-compact and full-size luxury crossovers dropped nearly 2% in just one week. Since July 11, luxury segments have seen wholesale prices drop by -5.32%, while the overall used vehicle market dropped -3.19%.
CarEdge’s Auto Experts Are Already Seeing More Deals
Our very own market researcher Mario notes that some vehicle segments are softening, but mass-market sedans and trucks are holding firm. “I’m starting to see increased negotiability with late model mid-size SUVs like the Mazda CX-9 and the luxury segment (Lexus RX, Audi Q5, Acura RDX). These segments have been softening and represent some good deals. Trucks continue holding value. I haven’t seen much change on the lower end and small sedans.”
CarEdge Auto Expert Justise also emphasized more consumer negotiating power as the first sign of a softening auto market. “ Luxury and non-hybrid vehicles are already a lot more negotiable than they were last month. I am also seeing a lot more deals across the board without as many shenanigans like nitrogen tires, and fewer markups over MSRP. Even many Toyota & Hondas that are 2020-2021 model years are coming back down to Earth.”
Are Retail Car Prices Guaranteed to Drop?
Think about what we’ve all collectively been through over the last few years. We know better than to assume anything in this market is guaranteed! Today’s car market is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before. New car inventory remains very low, and prices are sky-high while interest rates complicate matters even more. And we haven’t even discussed inflation. So no, nothing is guaranteed, but it’s undeniable that overall market pressure is building that will most likely push dealer sales managers to adjust pricing downwards.
Another factor to take into account is that dealer sales managers are going to try their hardest to cover their losses. Those who bought severely overvalued used vehicles at auction two to six months ago are going to either stand defiantly and demand high prices, or they’ll ‘be smart about it’ and cut their losses by negotiating with prepared, knowledgeable car buyers.
CarEdge’s own Ray Shefska said it best. “The smart dealers will take their losses, and sell what they can now. Wholesale price trends are indicating that they bought overpriced used vehicles for the past several months, and they’re losing money every day they don’t sell their inventory. This could drive prices downward sooner rather than later. Smart sales managers look at pricing weekly. If cars aren’t selling quickly like they have been, that’s a sign that the market is changing.”
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Update: On August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 into law. Within the 755 page bill is a massive, and controversial, revision of the electric vehicle tax credit (more on that here). Frankly, it’s a mix of good and bad news. The new incentives are sure to accelerate the growth of domestic production in the United States, however many models are losing the credit due to strict limits on eligibility.
Important Note: The IRS and Department of Energy have issued guidance, which can be found here and here. The vehicle price caps do not begin until January 1, 2023, which means that luxury EVs like the Lucid Air and Rivian R1T will qualify UNTIL the new year. These models are not on this list, as their inclusion is only for the rest of 2022.
The original 200,000 sale cap that took the previous tax credit away from Tesla and GM will be removed on January 1, 2023. EVs from these two automakers will not be eligible until after 1/1/2023.
We recommend checking out these official notices from the government for more information.
EV Tax Credit Requirements
Although the Inflation Reduction Act’s language dictates that the Treasury Secretary will finalize several aspects of the new EV tax credit, many provisions and eligibility requirements are now final.
The revised EV tax credit adds the following requirements for eligibility:
As soon as the bill is signed by the President, final assembly must be in the United States, Canada or Mexico. That starts now.
Beginning in 2023, 40% of battery minerals (by value) must be sourced from the U.S, or countries we have free trade agreements with. This requirement increases by 10% from 2024-2028. The battery mineral sourcing requirement is worth $3,750 in the form of either a federal tax credit (starting 1/1/2023) or rebate (starting 1/1/2024).
Beginning in 2023, 50% of battery components must be sourced from the U.S, or countries we have free trade agreements with. This requirement increases by 10% from 2024-2028. The battery component sourcing requirement is worth an additional $3,750, for a total of $7,500.
The price cap for sedans is $55,000; for SUVs, trucks and vans, the cap is $80,000. Price caps begin on January 1, 2023.
A point-of-sale rebate option begins in 2024.
Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) will qualify, as long as they meet the requirements listed above. More on that below.
(final assembly overseas; the Polestar 3 EV will be assembled in the U.S.)
Porsche Taycan
(too expensive… by a lot)
Rivian R1T and R1S
(too expensive)
Subaru Solterra
(final assembly overseas)
Tesla Model 3
(too expensive, RWD batteries produced overseas)
Tesla Model S and Model X
(too expensive)
Toyota bZ4X
(final assembly overseas)
Volvo C40 and XC40 Recharge
(final assembly overseas)
These Electric Vehicles Are Most Likely to Qualify for the New EV Tax Credit in 2023
The 2024 Chevrolet Equinox EV is likely to qualify
Cadillac Lyriq
This EV will be built in America, and powered by GM’s Ultium batteries. It is likely to qualify for at least $3,750, of the full $7,500.
Chevrolet Bolt
Currently the most affordable EV in America, it’s built in America with batteries manufactured in Michigan. It is likely to qualify for at least $3,750 of the full $7,500, depending on battery mineral sourcing.
Chevrolet Blazer EV
Recently revealed, this EV will be built in America, and is powered by GM’s Ultium batteries. It is likely to qualify for at least $3,750, and possibly the full $7,500. We don’t know where GM intends to source battery minerals.
Chevrolet Equinox EV
This EV will be built in America, and powered by GM’s Ultium batteries. It is likely to qualify for at least $3,750, and possibly the full $7,500. As with all other GM EVs, we don’t yet know where GM intends to source battery minerals.
Chevrolet Silverado EV
GM will manufacture this EV in America, with GM’s own Ultium batteries. It is likely to qualify for at least $3,750, and possibly the full $7,500, depending on battery mineral sourcing. We do know that the battery components will have assembly in America.
Honda Prologue
General Motors will make the Prologue for Honda in the United States using U.S.-made Ultium batteries. It is likely to qualify for at least $3,750, and possibly the full $7,500.
Nissan Leaf
Nissan builds the Leaf in Smyra, Tennessee. The AESC-supplied batteries are also assembled there, but it’s not clear where minerals are sourced from. The Leaf should qualify for at least $3,750, and perhaps the full $7,500. Nissan has plans for the impending retirement of the Leaf, so it’s not clear if one of America’s only affordable EVs will even be on sale next year.
Tesla Model Y
This is the top-selling EV in America. Final assembly is in Texas and California. Battery components sourcing is from Tesla and Panasonic in Texas and California. Battery mineral sourcing is unknown. It is likely to qualify for at least $3,750, and possibly the full $7,500.
Volkswagen ID.4
Final assembly is in Chattanooga, TN (for select VIN numbers, check with your dealer representative). SK Innovation makes the battery components in Georgia. Battery mineral sourcing is unknown. It is likely to qualify for at least $3,750, and possibly the full $7,500.
What About Ford? It depends on battery sourcing.
2022 Ford F-150 Lightning may qualify, depending on battery sourcing
Ford Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning
Ford currently makes the Mustang Mach-E in Mexico with batteries from LG Chem. LG Chem manufactures these battery cells in Poland, but the battery pack assembly is in North America. It’s unclear if Ford’s battery assembly meets the 40% battery component requirement. Unfortunately, Ford just signed an agreement with Chinese battery manufacturers CATL to supply batteries for upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E’s. This may disqualify the automaker briefly. Ford has already announced plans for two battery plants in Kentucky and Tennessee.
Will Plug-In Hybrids Be Eligible For the New Tax Credit?
Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) WILL be eligible, but they must meet the same requirements listed above, and have a minimum battery capacity of 7 kilowatt-hours.
With the Made-in-America requirement beginning as soon as the bill as signed, most plug-in hybrids won’t be eligible. This includes the RAV4 Prime, Prius Prime, Hyundai Santa Fe PHEV, Hyundai Tucson PHEV and some BMW PHEVs, such as the 330e made in Germany. The popular X5 and X3 PHEVs are among those that will qualify, as long as the MSRP stays under $80,000.
The Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid should qualify for at least half of the new credit. It is manufactured in Ontario with batteries assembled in Michigan.
Jeep PHEVs, such as the Wrangler 4xe and Grand Cherokee PHEV, should qualify for at least half of the new credit. The Wrangler 4xe is made in Toledo, Ohio, however it’s unclear where the Samsung SDI batteries are sourced from.
Used EV Tax Credit
Beginning on January 1, 2023, America’s first used electric vehicle tax credit begins. Eligibility requirements are strict:
Selling price is capped at $25,000
The vehicle must be sold by a dealer and be at least 2 years old
The income is cap is $75,000 for individuals, $112,500 for head-of-household, and $150,000 for join filers.
The Inflation Reduction Act has been signed into law, so the ‘Made in North America’ requirement has begun. The Treasury Secretary will set the final rules for other portions of the EV tax credit, and that must happen before the end of this year. We’ll update this page as more information becomes available.
With such volatile changes in car prices, it has never been more difficult to know the true fair market value of a car. That being said, there are ways to answer this question!
In the old days, it was impossible to know what the real fair value of a car was. Kelly Blue Book was just that, a book. Books don’t update from week to week like used car prices do, and websites like KBB are really just meant to gather leads for dealers; their valuations aren’t a true indication of “fair market value.” How we share information has changed, but so has how we buy and sell cars. Online car dealers now account for 30% of new car sales in America, and the used car market is catching up.
With sites like CarEdge, Carvana, Vroom, CarGurus, and others, you can see in real-time what a car dealer would pay to buy a car. This is VERY valuable information for car owners, regardless of whether or not you intend to sell. More on that below.
Follow the 10% Rule
If you’re buying a used car, the 10% rule is a great way to see if you’re paying a fair price. We all know car dealers make money when they sell cars, but how much do dealers make? In 2023, the average total profit per vehicle is up to $5,138. That’s double what it was five years prior.
With dealer profits climbing all the time, how can you make sure they’re not paying too much for a used car? We like to think about the 10% rule. If a dealer has a used car for sale and you’re going to buy it, the price should be no more than 10% over what online car dealers would pay to buy the car. We consider that to be a fair price. If it’s more, try and negotiate.
This is the worst IONIQ 5 dealer markup I’ve seen!
How could you apply the 10% rule? Both new and used car listings provide the vehicle’s VIN number, mileage, trim options and condition. Using that information, you could go through the tedious process of requesting a quote from Carvana, Vroom and CarGurus. Better yet, get all the quotes in one place with CarEdge’s Valuation. Once you have an estimated value or offer, simply calculate if the value is within 10% of the dealer’s quoted price. If it is, you’re looking at a fair price. If not, it’s time to look elsewhere or put your negotiating hat on.
See Your Vehicle’s Value In Real Time
We created a new kind of online vehicle valuation tool with the goal of giving consumers a realistic, regularly updated valuation without the fluff. Our CarEdge community members tell us time and time again; drivers just want real data without gimmicks or gotchas. How does it work? CarEdge’s Vehicle Valuation takes information you share about your vehicle or a vehicle you’re shopping for, and gives you real offers from online car buyers. Using either the vehicle’s VIN number or license plate, location and your answers to simple questions about the vehicle’s condition, you get multiple offers in less time than it takes to brew a pot of coffee.
Anyone who’s traded in a vehicle knows well that dealers lowball trade-in offers so that they can turn around and sell your car for more. CarEdge’s in-house auto experts leveraged decades of dealership experience to give consumers a better way to understand what their car is worth, and how its value changes over time.
Who would have ever thought we’d have a Toyota emissions scandal to cover. When Volkswagen was caught red-handed in 2015, its entire leadership structure was turned on its head. Seven years later, Volkswagen is still fighting to improve its image, and the automaker is turning to electric vehicles in hopes of winning forgiveness. Now we’ve learned about a different emissions scandal dating back nearly 20 years to 2003. This time, it’s from a Toyota owned brand; Hino Motors.
Will the Hino emissions scandal spill over to Toyota’s corporate leadership? In an investigation that keeps growing, new revelations suggest this is far from over.
Not Toyota’s First “Emissions Scandal”
Today’s news is not the first Toyota “emissions scandal”. At the beginning of 2021, Toyota paid $180 million over Clean Air Act violations and settled with the United States federal government after a decade-long period (2005 to 2015) of misreporting emissions data.
From Car and Driver:
“Under the Clean Air Act, automakers are required to notify the EPA when there are 25 or more vehicles or engines in a model year with the same defect in an emission-control component, according to the government’s court filing against Toyota, which said Toyota was late in filing as many as 78 emission defect reports.”
The United States lawsuit claims that Toyota employees in Japan knew of the issue and did not rectify it. Interestingly, the same pattern of behavior was identified today in the Hino Motors scandal.
Who Is Hino Motors, and What Happened This Time?
Hino Motors represents the Toyota Group in the global market for medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses. Unlike the emissions scandal that Toyota settled last year, in this case, Hino Motors cheated emissions testing for 20 years.
Although most American drivers are not familiar with Hino, they do have a rapidly growing presence in the United States. Hino Motors is the fastest growing medium-duty truck brand in the U.S., and Hino dealerships can be found throughout the nation. Thousands of Americans are employed in Hino’s two American manufacturing plants, and dozens of sales and delivery centers.
In North America, Hino builds trucks in West Virginia, North Carolina and Canada. However production was halted for the first 10 months of 2021 as Hino had issues getting its engine certified in the U.S.
How could a foreign, little-known brand dominate so much of the commercial truck market that much of America’s supply chains rely on? Toyota owns 51% of Hino Motors. Considering that Toyota is the #2 automaker by sales in the American market, saying that Hino has a head start is an understatement.
Corporate Investigation Finds a Deep-Rooted Culture of Lies, Intimidation
Earlier this year, Hino executives issued a public acknowledgement and apology for cheating emissions testing for nearly 20 years, and possibly longer. President Satoshi Ogiso bowed and apologized to customers and other stakeholders.
“I am so deeply sorry,” President Ogiso said. “Unfortunately, misconduct had been carried out for a widespread variety of models.”
Six months later, the investigative committee tasked by Hino Motors blamed the scandal on an environment where engineers feared challenging superiors in a toxic, high-stakes workplace. The committee’s report details an inflexible atmosphere that was constantly expected to live up to past achievements.
Investigative committee chairperson Kazuo Sakakibara, who is also a former prosecutor, told reporters that engineers and executives lost sight of values.
“The magnitude of their past successes has made them unable to change or look at themselves objectively, and they have been unaware of changes in the external environment and values,” he said in a press briefing.
So far, it is known that Hino cheated emissions testing on four engines used in medium- and heavy-duty trucks sold globally. Hino has recalled 47,000 trucks made between April 2017 and March this year, and Hino said an additional 20,900 would be recalled. With the latest revelation that emissions troubles date to at least 2003, the recall could be expanded to older model years.
Japan’s transportation ministry, which revoked the truck maker’s certification of the affected engines in March, said it would conduct an on-site investigation of the company.
Is This a Toyota Emissions Scandal?
Hino is essentially Toyota’s truck unit. Could the corporate problems spill over to Toyota as a whole? There are no indications that they will at this point. The stakes have always been higher for Toyota, whose sales dwarf those of its Hino unit.
Emissions scandals have touched other Japanese automakers in recent years. In 2017, Subaru and Nissan were investigated by the Japanese government. In 2018, the government said Mazda, Suzuki and Yamaha had improperly tested vehicles for fuel economy and emissions.
Prosecutors, whistleblowers and executives all point to notoriously rigorous corporate culture as the main culprit. Something has to change before Japan’s massive automotive industry, which accounts for nearly 3% of the nation’s gross domestic product and supports an even larger manufacturing industry, suffers larger repercussions.
When the Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act was signed into law in 2021, $1.2 trillion in federal funding was earmarked for dozens of projects ranging from bridge repair to internet access. Included in the massive package is $7.5 billion for National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI), also known as the national charging network. States were tasked with submitting a plan for how they would spend NEVI funding, with a submission deadline of August 1, 2022. Now that states have turned in their EV charging proposals, we decided to create this resource with every state’s plans for how they’ll spend NEVI funding.
There’s a lot to unpack here. Phase one of this five-year initiative will prioritize DC fast chargers every 50 miles along Alternative Fuel Corridors, which are usually interstate highways. Once state NEVI plans are approved by the Federal Highway Administration, the contract bid process and construction will kick off in early 2023.
Fiscal year 2022 (FY2022) funding is based on the state’s population, size, and number of major highways. We’d love to hear what you think about how your state is planning to build out their portion of the national charging network.
With electric vehicle market share recently rising above 5%, it’s not too late to get the ball rolling on a national charging network. But time is of the essence. Sales data from Europe saw accelerated adoption once the 5% market share threshold was surpassed, and half of American drivers are interested in EVs.
Of greater concern is the many ways in which the build out of a national charging network could fall short, and this is what’s on my mind. Anyone who’s ever frequented Electrify America charging stations is well aware that malfunctioning charging stations are a lot more common than they should be. In my experience with my Hyundai IONIQ 5, it seems like one out of five chargers has issues.
Can states, the U.S. Department of Transportation and private partners install 500,000 chargers that are more reliable and less confusing than the status quo? Perhaps they could learn a thing or two from Tesla, whose Supercharger network is the gold standard. In many ways, the success of electric vehicles in America will rely on the success of the state plans shared here. I’d be lying if I told you I wasn’t feeling a bit of anxiety about how this could go!
Drop us a comment below. What’s your take on these state plans for the national charging network?
CarEdge Insights
