Get access to the same vehicle valuation tool that dealers rely on. With Black Book, you’ll have insider data to accurately assess trade-in and purchase values—empowering you to negotiate the best possible deal.
Is all the talk of inflation giving car dealers and automakers an excuse to raise car prices even further? While that would be pure speculation, we do know that a new vehicle now costs more than ever before. New data from Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics reveals that just a few weeks after a previous record high was reached, new car prices have forced monthly auto payments to new heights. How high will new car prices climb? Is this simply a new normal that we have to accept? Here’s what the data tell us.
New Vehicle Affordability Declines on Low Inventory
The new report from Cox Automotive and Moody’s Analytics is disheartening to say the least. Today’s out-of-control car prices can be summarized by one statistic: In June, the estimated number of weeks of median income needed to purchase the average new vehicle was up 17% from last year. Median incomes have risen slightly, but rising new car prices have far outpaced income.
The Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index is driven by the consumer’s vehicle transaction prices, the income of the consumer, amount financed by the consumer, and the interest rate provided by the lender. The result is a value that represents the number of weeks of the median household income in America that would be needed to buy the average new vehicle.
The number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle in June increased to 42.2 weeks from 41.5 weeks in May. This is an all-time high that reflects the predicament that consumers needing a car find themselves in. From May to June 2022, median income grew 0.3% at the same time that new car transaction prices increased 1.6%.
Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index June 2022
The estimated average monthly payment increased 2.2% to $730, which is a new record high. A new car monthly payment now costs as much as rent in many parts of the country. We’re seeing more and more car payments over $1,000 a month.
Gone are the days of zero percent financing. As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to combat inflation, borrowing money becomes more expensive for everyone from the banks to the consumer. From May to June of 2022, the average auto interest rate increased another 8 basis points.
Higher interest rates affect luxury car buyers and those who put little money down the most. A 6% interest rate will result in about $6,000 in total interest paid for a $40,000 loan over 60 months, but just $2,400 for a $15,000 loan over the same term. Interest rates are a big part of car buying, and they remain dynamic as our economy traverses ups and downs.
Manufacturer Incentives Decline to Record Lows When Buyers Need Them Most
Why would automakers offer new car incentives when demand far exceeds supply? To be nice to the consumer? We could only hope for such benevolence from OEMs, but we know that’s not how big business works.
New car incentives are down 59% in just 12 months as supply chain problems squeeze new vehicle inventory to record lows that have struggled to climb back. In the second quarter of 2022, incentives averaged $1,228 industry-wide. That’s a 59% drop year-over-year.
New Car Inventory Remains Low, and That Needs to Change
In January of 2020, the industry’s average was 82 days’ supply. By early 2021, that figure had fallen to 66, but it would soon plummet as the chip shortage lasted longer than most expected. In July of 2022, new car inventory is slim with just 21 days’ supply.
Subaru, Mazda, Volvo, Kia and Hyundai have had the lowest new car inventory, and therefore have had the least incentives for buyers. See the latest new car inventory numbers.
A Silver Lining: Used Car Prices Are Going Down
For three consecutive weeks, used car prices have declined at wholesale auctions. This leading indicator suggests that relief may be on the way for consumers in desperate need of a more affordable option. In fact, only full-size vans appreciated last week. All other vehicle segments have seen prices decline at the used wholesale level.
Will used car prices continue to decline? It all depends on new car inventory. When there are more cars on dealer lots, used cars will lose value, and may ultimately come back down to Earth from record highs. This is something to bear in mind if you’re thinking about buying a used car at today’s inflated prices.
The FTC’s Comment Period Is NOW OPEN. Make Your Voice Heard!
The U.S. Federal Trade Commission is proposing new regulations that would ban anti-consumer sales tactics notoriously common in the auto industry. These shady practices include..
Bait-and-switch pricing
Forced add-ons
Poor F&I disclosures
Discrimination against cash buyers
Car dealer lobbyists are NOT HAPPY about this set of proposed regulations! We the consumers have until September 12, 2022 to leave a comment in support of these common sense regulations. Find out how YOU can make your voice heard here. We must fight back against powerful dealers!
Get the most when you sell your car.
Compare and choose multiple offers in minutes:
CARWISER LETS YOU COMPARE & CHOOSE MULTIPLE OFFERS IN MINUTES.
For years, electric vehicle enthusiasts and skeptics alike have said that if electric vehicles were ever to go mainstream, chargers were needed in two places: highway rest areas and truck stops. With today’s announcement from General Motors and the ongoing planning of the national charging network, EV chargers just might end up at both of these high-traffic locations. GM has announced a new partnership with EVgo, America’s third-largest charging network, and Pilot Company to bring EV fast chargers to 500 truck stop locations nationwide.
EVgo Takes the Lead, with Support From Pilot and GM
GM is on the verge of a massive push to EVs, and is counting on its new Ultium battery platform to overcome past issues with America’s most affordable electric car, the Chevrolet Bolt. As long as Tesla’s massive Supercharger network remains exclusively for Tesla owners, GM and other automakers will be faced with the challenge of how to provide adequate fast charging infrastructure for their EV customers.
In a press release, GM said that the new EVgo stations will be accessible to all EV brands. EVgo will install, operate and maintain the new charging stations, and Pilot Company’s Pilot and Flying J travel centers (more commonly known as truck stops) will provide amenities like restrooms and food options.
The latest announcement is separate from the existing collaboration GM has with EVgo to install more than 3,250 fast chargers in American cities and suburbs by the end of 2025. The first charging stations resulting from this new partnership will go live next year.
What exactly is GM’s role in this collaborative effort? From what’s been revealed so far, it appears it’s in the marketing and financing of these charging stations. The EVgo-installed and maintained stations will be co-branded “Pilot Flying J” and “Ultium Charge 360”, according to GM.
With Chevy Bolt sales skyrocketing and the Silverado electric truck almost here, GM’s electric vehicle customers are looking for signs of better charging experiences, and according to the announcement, it sounds like this will go a long way toward a more seamless experience.
“GM customers will receive special benefits like exclusive reservations, discounts on charging, a streamlined charging process through Plug and Charge and integration into GM’s vehicle brand apps providing real-time charger availability and help with route planning.”
Speaking of the Silverado EV and Ultium platform, many of the new EVgo stations will be able to charge at 350 kilowatts, making ultra-fast charging sessions possible in more areas.
Pilot EV Chargers To Become More Like Gas Pumps
One thing that stood out to me was GM’s mention of canopy covers for some of the EVgo charging stations. Plugging in during a thunderstorm fully-exposed to the elements doesn’t make for a fun EV experience, so I welcome this addition to charging stations.
Timeline: Surprisingly Soon
Phase 1 installations (pictured in the map) are supposed to begin operation by the end of 2023. As far as charging infrastructure goes, that’s a quick rollout. Subsequent phases will bring chargers to more locations not announced yet.
Electrify America is currently the charging network of choice for most brands besides Tesla, with over 800 locations in the U.S. Electric vehicle drivers (myself included) are too-often inconvenienced by malfunctioning charging stalls and lines to charge on holiday weekends. With a government-funded national charging network nearing the start of construction, EV drivers are hoping for more reliability, easier access, and less charger downtime. GM’s partnership with EVgo and Pilot could be the pillar that finally brings stability to the EV charging experience. We look forward to this collaboration getting off the ground.
Who can afford a new car in 2022? The latest data from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book reveals that the wealthy are making up more and more of new vehicle purchases as prices soar out of reach for many. New car prices are at all-time record highs, but could this be the peak? Let’s dive into the details.
New Vehicle Transaction Prices Make a Run for $50,000
Last December, we reported a new record that everyone saw coming, but no one was thrilled about. Six months ago, the average new vehicle transaction price reached $47,202. In June of 2022, the average transaction price (ATP) soared to $48,043, according to Kelley Blue Book’s data. June prices rose 1.9% ($895) from May and were up 12.7% ($5,410) from June 2021.
A bit of perspective brings to Earth just how high new car prices are right now. Ten years ago, the average transaction price of a new car was just $31,000. The average price of a vehicle purchased in 2022 is 54% higher than it was in 2012. That’s INSANE.
Here’s how new car prices have risen over the last decade:
New car average transaction prices from 2012-2022. Source: Cox Automotive
Luxury Vehicles Are MORE Popular Than Ever, Despite Record Prices
Here we are in the roaring twenties, and it appears that those with the means are going all-out with their vehicle purchases. Today’s data suggests that to many, it’s all about lavish luxury, no matter the price tag. The popularity of luxury autos happens to coincide with America’s total personal debt reaching an all-time high of $14.96 trillion. The average American debt (per U.S. adult) is $58,604, and three-quarters of American households have at least some type of debt.
Incentives Disappear When Buyers Need It Most
The image below shows the industry average transaction price versus the industry average incentive as $ of ATP. Clearly, manufacturer incentives are evaporating as new cars become more expensive.
The industry average transaction price versus the industry average incentive as % of ATP. Source: Cox Automotive
Electric vehicles had the lowest incentives (as a percentage of ATP) of 0.4%, and entry-level luxury cars had the highest of 3.4%. Incentives dropped to a record low level in June, averaging only 2.3% of the average transaction price. See the latest new car incentive numbers here.
Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Prices Climb Higher
With an average transaction price of $39,040, hybrid cars saw the largest ATP increase of $3,593. Hybrids have been in the lowest supply lately of any segment. Electric vehicle prices climbed to new records in June, with an ATP of $66,997, an increase of $2,444 since May 2022.
Electric vehicle market share has crept up over the first six months of the year, despite overall vehicle sales sliding. Recently, Bloomberg noted that when other countries attained 5% market share, the floodgates opened to more rapid EV adoption. Will this familiar pattern play out in the United States? With EV transaction prices averaging over $66,000, it’s a bit of a stretch to think EV adoption could happen so quickly. We must not forget that the median household income is around $70,000, just a few thousand dollars more than EVs are selling for today. Electrification is not top of mind for most American households, but the worsening affordability crisis is for many.
Are Car Prices Going Down?
Is the car bubble about to pop? Here’s what the latest data shows. We keep close tabs on the latest automaker inventory numbers, and we’re finally starting to see inventory increase, albeit slowly. Wholesale used car prices are another leading indicator of where the car market is headed, and this week we saw a sharp downturn in prices in almost every vehicle class.
In mid-July, wholesale used car prices dropped 0.35% in just one week, the third week in a row of declines. Trucks and SUV prices declined by nearly half of one percent. While this alone may not sound significant, remember that this is week-over-week, not monthly or yearly data. See the full data on used car numbers, updated weekly.
Wholesale used car prices by week, 2020-2022. Source: Black Book
In conclusion, car prices may drop if both of these trends continue. But they’ll have to continue much longer before we see a substantial decline in used and new car prices. If automakers are finally able to overcome supply chain constraints, new vehicle inventory will continue to rise, and dealer lots will have more vehicles. Until that happens, used car prices will remain high. Check back for the latest updates at caredge.kinsta.cloud/guides.
If you’re in the market for a GMC Sierra, Buick Enclave, or any of the two brand’s other models, we have some disappointing news for you. At what most would agree is the absolute worst time for automakers to pack more profits into car sales, Buick and GMC are forcing what they consider to be ‘value added’ subscriptions, and it’s not optional. The news from GM is just the latest example of automakers introducing what they call ‘software-derived revenue’, and executives are not being shy with their plans to introduce more of the same in the near future.
Not a Fan of OnStar? Too Bad, Says GM
Would you consider forcing customers to pay for an add-on they may not want to be anti-consumer, or is that just how the world works these days? It’s one thing to sell a new vehicle with a trial subscription, but it’s another to add a thousand dollars to the price tag for a software subscription the customer may never use.
As of July, General Motors is adding between $905 and $1,675 to Buick and GMC price tags for a 3-year subscription to GM’s OnStar Connected Services. To the uninitiated, this may sound like yet another add-on. But the thing is, GM says it’s not optional. No matter whether you want a 36 month subscription to OnStar or not, GMC and Buick customers will have to pay for it. The only model to receive the full suite of software free of additional charge is the $100,000-plus GMC Hummer EV.
A GM spokesperson confirmed the move to GM Authority, saying, “This offering provides our owners with a full suite of OnStar and Connected Services for three years, providing them with more time to enjoy services such as remote key fob, Wi-Fi data and OnStar safety services. By including this plan as standard equipment on the vehicle, it provides more customer value and a more seamless onboarding experience.”
Manufacturer incentives are already at record lows, and new car inventory is increasing at a snail’s pace. How could you push back against these new forced add-ons? Considering that GMC and Buick’s OnStar ‘Connected Services’ mandatory subscription is tacked on by the automakers themselves, dealers are not likely to negotiate on it. What we can hope for is the return of other kinds of incentives and deals. With more and more signs of the car price bubble beginning to burst, it’s too early to lose hope on that front.
It’s likely that GM will lose some customers for life as a result of this decision. Look at some of the comments we received on our YouTube video covering this topic:
Consumers are fed up, and with good reason. General Motors isn’t the only automaker trying to make car subscriptions mainstream; Volkswagen, Stellantis, Ford, and BMW all have their eyes on increasing software and subscription revenues.
BMW wants you to subscribe to your heated seats for $18/mo
Welcome to microtransaction hell. BMW wants you to subscribe to your heated seats in your new 3 series:
Monthly fee: $18
Annual fee: $180
The car will come with all the necessary components, but payment is needed to remove a software block. How wild is that?
GM is taking the tact of “subscriptions are mandatory,” while BMW is shipping cars to customers with all of the necessary hardware to offer functionality, yet imposing a software “paywall”.
So far BMW has not launched this program in the United States, however it’s likely they will at some point. More on this from The Verge.
Volkswagen, Stellantis and Ford Pursuing Subscriptions and Software Revenues
GM surely isn’t the first to say it or even do it, but this is the boldest forced subscription we’ve seen from a legacy automaker to date. For a decade, Tesla has been offering acceleration boosts, more range, and autonomous driving features as software ‘upgrades’ that controversially don’t get passed on to future owners. Clearly, many buyers don’t mind, as Tesla has dominated EV and overall luxury sales.
Is this yet another example of legacy OEMs going after Tesla, or is it a ploy to introduce new revenue streams for the sake of simply making more money, and charging more for vehicles? Fortunately, there’s no need to speculate, because multiple automaker executives have already shared their intentions with the public.
Stellantis Plans to Bring Subscriptions to Vehicles
Not looking forward to paying a monthly subscription for conveniences like remote start or advanced cruise control? Me either. Automotive News Europe recently reported that Stellantis is launching a $23 billion software push to get into the auto subscription business.
The Chrysler Airflow EV will surely have subscription options to access all features.
Just how big of a business will auto subscription services become? Stellantis, the sixth-largest automaker in the world, says it plans to make $4.5 billion in annual revenue from software subscriptions in the near future. How soon? Mamatha Chamarthi, the head of Stellantis’ software business, says the company can reach their goal by 2026.
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares chimed in too. He’s confident that Stellantis’ software business will generate high margins more like those at tech companies than the traditional auto business. He added that in the company’s view, software-based services and subscriptions will help vehicles last longer and have higher resale values. Do you buy that?
Ford Wants To Be a Tech Company
The Blue Oval is getting into pay-to-play automotive services, too. The Ford Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning electric vehicles are Ford’s first mass-produced vehicles to be fully-capable of over-the-air updates, and now Ford plans to turn their latest innovation into new revenue streams.
Wes Sherwood of Ford Communications recently told Pickup Truck Talk that Ford knows the value of what they’re bringing to their models. “These subscription services are big business for automakers – to the tune of billions. We see connected vehicle services as a huge opportunity, which is why we are transforming Ford into a software-led company and, for customers, ‘always-on’ ownership experiences where before our relationships were periodic (sales and some service). In fact, we see this market growing to $20 billion by 2030.”
Volkswagen’s Pay-As-You-Go Autonomous Driving
If you want to be a beta tester for Tesla’s ‘Full Self-Driving”, you’ll have to add $12,000 to the price of that shiny new EV. However, Volkswagen, one of Tesla’s most admiring competitors, envisions a subscription-based payment plan for autonomous driving capabilities.
Volkswagen Group’s software unit Cariad believes pay-as-you-go autonomous driving is one way the automaker can monetize future software developments.
“There is a new business model already out there — a subscription model, or function-on-demand — where you can drive autonomously if you want, for the next 50 miles. We would support that, “ Cariad CEO Dirk Hilgenberg told Bloomberg.
Hilgenberg said it was possible to see that the service would allow the automaker the opportunity to offer other services to consumers who are freed from driving the vehicle.
“You have to make sure to have what we call a digital services platform that lets the outside world in — Google, Apple, Amazon — where you can bring your accounts to stream and be entertained, or where you can work with office products, do a videoconference or prepare yourself for the next meeting. This is the product we want to sell. The product is our platform,” he said.
When demand exceeds supply for any product, sellers have the upper hand. New car incentives dropped even further in the summer of 2022. What does fewer incentives mean for car buyers today? This is what the latest data reveals.
New Car Incentives Down 50% in 12 Months
The pandemic really put a wrench in the typical ebbs and flows of the automotive industry. Gone are the days of gradual change. Following an unprecedented drop in car sales as COVID took hold in 2020, record demand for cars far outpaced supply in 2021 and into 2022. Today, the lingering semiconductor chip shortage continues to greatly reduce new vehicle inventory. Any time there’s a shortage of new cars, used car prices rise too. Will buying a car ever get cheaper? Well, it hasn’t yet. Here’s the latest auto manufacturer incentive data from the analysts at TrueCar:
Q2 2022*
Q1 2022
QoQ change
Q2 2021
YoY change
BMW
$1,206
$2,358
-49%
$4,713
-74%
Daimler
$1,257
$2,012
-38%
$3,574
-65%
Ford
$1,193
$1,824
-35%
$2,567
-54%
General Motors
$1,847
$1,974
-6.40%
$4,399
-58%
Honda
$818
$1,163
-30%
$2,167
-62%
Hyundai
$620
$890
-30%
$2,102
-71%
Kia
$650
$1,260
-48%
$2,549
-75%
Nissan
$1,501
$1,848
-19%
$3,502
-57%
Stellantis
$1,893
$2,413
-22%
$3,522
-46%
Subaru
$753
$901
-17%
$1,339
-44%
Toyota
$803
$1,025
-22%
$2,219
-64%
Volkswagen Group
$1,169
$1,769
-34%
$3,730
-69%
Industry
$1,228
$1,631
-25%
$3,003
-59%
As you can see, new car incentives are at a 10-year low. In the second quarter of 2022, incentives averaged $1,228 industry-wide. That’s a 59% drop year-over-year.
Incentives Won’t Return As Long As Days’ Supply Remains Low
The latest new car inventory numbers are in, and the update brings a mixed bag of news. Overall new car inventory is up, but not nearly to the extent that is required to return normalcy to car sales. Most automakers are seeing incremental improvements.
Automakers with the Lowest Inventory
Subaru with 4 days’ supply (up from 3 days in June)
Mazda with 6 days’ supply (up from 4 days in June)
Hyundai with 7 days’ supply (down from 8 days in June)
Kia with 10 days’ supply (holding steady since June)
Automakers with the Most Inventory
Ford with 51 days’ supply (up from 37 days in June)
Lincoln with 40 days’ supply (up from 28 days in June)
Volvo with 26 days’ supply (some models are extremely limited)
Lexus with 24 days’ supply (up from 23 days in June)
In January of 2020, the industry’s average was 82 days’ supply. By early 2021, that figure had fallen to 66, but it would soon plummet as the chip shortage lasted longer than most expected. In July of 2022, new car inventory is slim with just 21 days’ supply.
Until more cars are sitting on dealer lots, there simply won’t be any reason for manufacturers to offer more new car incentives to buyers.
Lack of Incentives Is Contributing to Record New Car Transaction Prices
Average new vehicle transaction price over time. Source: Cox Automotive
You’re probably not surprised to hear that a new car costs more than ever before. The average transaction price has hovered around $45,000 for much of the past year. Two years ago, it was $38,000. With inflation AND supply chain bottlenecks, it will be a while before prices stabilize.
Monthly payments are on the rise, too. How much is too much? $500 a month? $750 a month? Maybe even a $1,000 car payment? Right now, the average monthly car payment is $712 a month. Five years ago, it surpassed $500/month for the first time. There’s a worrying trend taking hold today, and it’s one that risks spiraling out of control. A new Edmunds survey finds that 12% of car buyers are paying more than $1,000 each month for their car payment. Yes, a new car now costs as much as a home mortgage for those who choose to spend big.
How Does the Loss of Incentives Change the Car Buying Process?
Does Tesla win with lower incentives across the industry?
Other than higher price tags, here are some considerations if you’re in the market for a new car:
Most vehicle purchases are now above MSRP. However, this does NOT mean you must pay the premium – deals are still out there for those who do their homework. Nevertheless, 82% of car buyers paid over MSRP in early 2022.
Direct-to-consumer auto sales bring advantages. Eighty percent of Tesla buyers cite the no-haggle online buying process as a major factor in their decision to buy. Other electric vehicle automakers are selling direct-to-consumer without markups, but also without incentives. These include Rivian, Lucid, Polestar and Fisker.
More car buyers are placing factory orders… and waiting several months for delivery. If you’re looking for a special edition in a specific trim and paint color, chances are you’ll have to place a custom order and wait in line. If you’re more flexible, your chances of getting what you want, with or without incentives, are much higher.
Check back for the latest new car incentives. We’ll be updating this page as new numbers come in. Remember, you can still find a deal out there, but it will take a bit more work on your part. The CarEdge team is here to help you every step of the way. As Ray always says, knowledge is power, and CarEdge’s auto experts empower car buyers every day with the know-how that can save thousands of dollars.
CarEdge Insights
