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Wholesale used car prices are increasing in value more rapidly than before. Car prices appreciated .83% this past week.
Conventional wisdom no longer holds true; used cars are appreciating assets. For the past 18 months, used cars have increased in value rather than decrease. The old adage “you lease things that depreciate, and buy things that appreciate” (thank you for that Paul Getty) used to apply to cars quite easily, however nowadays it does not.
In this post we’ll run through the latest data on used vehicle appreciation. Which types of vehicles are increasing in value the most, what specific cars have seen the biggest increase in value as a result of the ongoing chip crisis, and when do we expect used car prices to reach their peak. We’ll touch on that, and more. Let’s dive in.
Overall Used Car Market Update
Let’s start with the big picture. Data form Black Book shows that wholesale used car prices are up more than 40% from the beginning of 2021. In the graph below 2021 is the purple line. You can see the insane increase in price as compared to last year, 2019, and 2009. The weekly changes in wholesale price appear to be getting larger.
Retail prices are increasing as well, but not as rapidly as wholesale prices. Retail prices are now up 29% from the beginning of 2021. Again, you can compare this year to those in the recent past. The price increase is truly remarkable. Our expectation is that retail used car prices will continue to increase so long as the chip shortage is effecting new car supply.
A major issue facing car dealers is the fact that used car inventory levels are much lower than they should be. Again, the purple line shows 2021, and you can see that dealers have 17% fewer used vehicles listed for sale right now as compared to the beginning of this year.
Black Book, which produces a weekly report, has tracked eight straight weeks of wholesale used vehicle price gains. Weekly price increases have become larger in recent weeks, indicating that the supply and demand of used vehicles is again going “out of whack.”
Last week
This shows last weeks wholesale used car, truck, and SUV price gains.
This week
You can see the weekly price change increased considerably.
Recent Q3 earnings reports from the major automakers make it clear why used car prices are ticking back up. GM reported a 33% decrease in sales year over year for the third quarter. This is a direct result of chip shortage, and GM’s inability to produce more new vehicles. Other American manufacturers saw their Q3 numbers take a dive. Ford‘s sales were down 27% for example.
So long as new car manufacturers cannot produce vehicles, used car prices will continue to climb.
What types of cars are increasing in value the most?
Used car appreciation has been uniform across all makes, models, and trims, however some body styles and classes of vehicles have seen the most aggressive price increases.
Mid-size and compact cars have seen incredible price appreciation over the past few weeks. This is because their price point is more “affordable” compared to everything else. We use the term “affordable” loosely here, because in the past you could find a decent used car for less than $15,000, however nowadays they are few and far between.
Similarly to cars, we’ve seen rapid appreciation of compact crossovers and SUVs. The most aggressive appreciation has been seen amongst sub-compact luxury crossovers. Week over week Black Book shows a .9% increase in wholesale prices for sub-compact luxury crossovers. That’s insane! Vans also continue their rapid appreciation as well.
Thanks to research from iseecars, we know that the Mitsubishi Mirage is the car that has appreciated the most over the past year. Up nearly 50% year over year, the Mirage has increased in value rapidly due to the fact that it is one of the remaining few “affordable” (again we use that word loosely) cars in the market.
No. From all of the data we’ve been able to get our hands on, it looks like there isn’t a single style of vehicle or particular nameplate that is not increasing in value right now. We know that certain vehicles are appreciating less than others, however all vehicles are increasing in value right now.
Luxury vehicles, and in particular luxury SUVs are appreciating much less rapidly than other vehicles. Take for example the Mercedes-Benz GLC, it has only appreciated 8% year over year. This further reinforces the theory for why the Mirage has increased in value nearly 50%; consumers need affordable and attainable used cars, not expensive and luxurious ones.
How long will used car prices keep going up?
Although our crystal ball has been notoriously cloudy here at CarEdge, we feel confident in saying that used car prices will continue to increase well into 2022. Even when automakers get production back up to speed for new vehicles, there will be lingering effects from this period of time where they have not been able to produce at expected capacity.
Also, the price to produce new vehicles has gone up. As a result of the chip shortage (and other supply chain issues), we expect MSRP on new vehicles to be considerably higher than before. Why? Because the manufacturers costs are increasing, and they will likely pass that along to the consumer. As a result, the demand for used cars will continue to be high because used cars (especially vehicles like the Mitsubishi Mirage) will be the only “attainable” price point vehicles for many people.
For these reasons, we think week over week, and month over month used car price increases will continue for at least another 12 months.
When should I sell my used car?
If used car prices are likely going to continue to appreciate, it would make sense to hold onto your used vehicle and wait to sell it. That being said, our best recommendation is to track the value of your used vehicle weekly. To do this we encourage you to use the “value my vehicle” section of your CarEdge account. You should also get quotes from Carvana, Vroom, CarMax, etc.
There may be small fluctuations in price from week to week, but we expect the price of your vehicle to gradually increase overtime. The indicator for when to sell will be when you see week over week declines in the value of your vehicle.
If You’re Buying a Used Car …
Our recommendation has been, and will continue to be to stop buying cars! We’re so passionate about this that we even made a website: http://stopbuyingcars.com/
However, if you need to buy a used car right now, here’s what you need to remember.
How to value if it’s a fair deal
The only way to know if you’re getting a fair deal is to get the out-the-door price from the seller and then compare that to the vehicle’s value. To get the out-the-door price follow this guide:
To know if the vehicle’s price is fair, we encourage you to run the VIN through the CarEdge vehicle valuation page and to also get a quote from Carvana to see what they would pay to buy the car right now. If the Carvana quote is close to what you are paying for the vehicle, then it’s likely a pretty fair deal.
Get a pre-purchase inspection
In today’s market, with “rougher” used cars for sale it is critically important that you get a pre-purchase inspection done on the vehicle you are thinking of purchasing. We have heard too many horror stories of people buying used cars “as-is” and then getting stuck with a piece of junk. Avoid that, and get a PPI!
Consider an extended warranty from CarEdge
Last but not least, consider getting an extended warranty on your used vehicle. CarEdge partnered with AUL Corporation to sell vehicle service contracts with a flat markup, transparent pricing, and free consultations with an Auto Advocate. If we can help you protect your use car, we want to. More on that here: https://caredge.com/extended-warranty/
After 21 straight weeks of appreciation, it had looked like used car prices were finally returning to normal (aka depreciating). Following the 21 straight weeks of appreciation, we experienced seven straight weeks of declining used car prices. This is the expected behavior in the used car market, because used cars become less valuable as more miles are put on them, and new vehicles make it to market. However, as we’ve documented extensively in 2021, we’ve seen used cars, trucks, and SUVs appreciate considerably.
The run of seven straight weeks of declines was short-lived. We’re now experiencing a reversal, and used car prices are increasing again. In this article we’ll break down the numbers and answer a few key questions such as; When is the best time to sell my used car to make the most money? When will used car prices go down again? And, how much higher will used car prices go?
Let’s dive in.
How fast are used car prices increasing?
To track the movements in used vehicle pricing we rely on data from Black Book. Black Book is an industry leader in providing vehicle valuations and data insights. They are a CarEdge partner and an industry authority.
Black Book’s weekly market insights report is full of interesting data. None more than the chart displaying weekly changes in wholesale used vehicle prices. Wholesale used vehicle prices are a leading indicator for what will happen to retail used vehicle prices.
This Week
Last Week
2017-2019 Average (Same Week)
Car segments
0.43%
0.31%
-0.25%
Truck & SUV segments
0.36%
0.09%
-0.12%
Market
0.38%
0.17%
-0.17%
The red line in the chart above represents zero change week over week in wholesale used car prices. Each dot represents a week. As you can see, for the past three weeks, wholesale used vehicle prices have been above the red line (cars, the blue line, have been above the red line for four weeks now).
Earlier this year we saw week over week increases in price of up to 2% across entire vehicle segments. Right now, price increases are more modest (at .43% for cars and .36% for trucks and SUVs), however our expectation is that price appreciation will increase in velocity. We would not be surprised if we see week over week price appreciation of 1%+ later in 2021.
Car segment
Within the car segment we can get more granular on the week over week wholesale price changes.
Sporty cars are the anomaly here. Mid-size cars, compact cars, and sub-compact cars are leading the way in week over week price appreciation in the wholesale market. The seasonality that effects sports cars is likely at play right now (sporty car values typically increase in the spring and summer, and decrease in the fall and winter).
We expect to see used sub-compact and compact car prices continue to increase at rapid rates. This is because they represent the only segment of vehicle that is still moderately “affordable” compared to full-size cars, trucks, or SUVs.
Truck and SUV segment
We also have more granular data on the truck and SUV market.
Similarly to the car segment, we see the greatest price increase among the sub-compact and compact segments. This is again because those vehicles are at lower price points, making them more attainable for a broader buying audience.
Minivan prices are increasing at above average rates as well, and we expect that to continue. Minivans and full-size vans experienced truly remarkable appreciation earlier this year, and we would not be surprised to see that again.
How much higher will used car prices go?
Wholesale used car prices are currently up 36% from the beginning of this year.
You can see the weekly declines we had been experiencing on the purple line above. You can also see the increases we’ve now experienced for the past few weeks.
Retail prices are currently up 25% from when we began this year (again, the purple line).
Unlike wholesale prices, we have not seen any significant downward movement in used retail pricing.
Can wholesale and retail prices increase even more? We think so.
We would not be surprised to see an additional 10% increase in wholesale used vehicle prices and a commensurate 5-7% increase in retail used vehicle prices.
When will used car prices go down again?
Used vehicles can’t appreciate forever, can they? We don’t think so. Used car prices have increased in price because of the ongoing chip crisis and supply chain issues plaguing automakers. Expectations for when new vehicle production will return to pre-pandemic levels vary based on who you talk to.
From our sources, we expect that new vehicle production will return to pre-pandemic levels in the third or fourth quarter of 2022. The other question that is top of mind is, if automakers will produce as many vehicles as they did in the past?
We’ve heard from the chief executives at multiple automakers who have said they will not go back to stocking their dealerships will hundreds or thousands of cars. Instead, they will retain a business model where there is less supply because they’ve found it to be more profitable.
Does that mean used car prices will continue to appreciate? We don’t think so.
Automakers may stock their dealer lots with a lesser supply of inventory, however there will still be enough new vehicle supply to offset the craziness we are currently experiencing in the wholesale and retail used car market.
Our expectation is that used car prices will fluctuate and generally increase between now and the third quarter of 2022. At that point, we would not be surprised to see a consistent depreciation of used vehicles like we have seen in pre-pandemic times.
When should I sell my car to make the most money?
This begs the most important question of all … When should I sell (or trade-in) my car to make the most money?
While we expect used car prices to continue to increase until the third quarter of 2022, we would not be surprised if we see a peak in prices in the spring of 2022. Spring is typically the season where used car prices are at their highest. While seasonality has not played a major role in used vehicle prices in 2021 (because of all the other factors), we still would not be surprised if used car prices peak during this time.
If you plan to sell or trade-in your vehicle we recommend tracking your vehicle’s valuation on an ongoing basis.
New vehicle inventory levels have plummeted. The ongoing semiconductor shortage has caused automakers to cut production. Drive around town and you’ll see your local car dealership likely doesn’t have much inventory on their lot, and if they do, it’s likely used vehicles, not new.
More and more dealerships are turning towards “factory orders“. Generally speaking, this is a good thing, as it allows the customer to get exactly what they want. The issue is, as far as we can tell from our community of thousands of savvy shoppers, those people who placed orders are getting the runaround.
“Your car will be built next week and shipped to us soon,” is a common phrase we’re hearing, and then sadly weeks go by without an update. Automakers are simply struggling to do what they’re supposed to do best; make cars.
To put into perspective how dire the current new vehicle inventory situation is, we’re going to compare the current market days supply and inventory levels of a few of the major automakers to their prior levels in 2019. Let’s dive in.
Ford Inventory Levels
Ford has made headlines for many reasons in 2021. Their current inventory levels are one of those reasons. In September of 2019, Ford had 621,000 new vehicles in inventory across the United States. At current sales rates, that represented an 82 day supply of inventory on their dealer lots. Today, as of September 2021, Ford has 210,800 units of inventory in the market.
Toyota was initially hailed as one of the automakers who would be able to mitigate the effects of the chip shortage and retain their production capacity. That was until Toyota announced a 40% decrease in production in October as a result of supply-chain issues.
In 2019 Toyota had 444,000 units of inventory in the market, at a 50 days supply. Today, Toyota has 135,200 units of inventory in the market, at an 18 days supply. Staggering.
Honda’s inventory levels in September of 2019 were healthy, with 351,700 units of inventory in the US market. Today they have less than 100,000 units of inventory for sale in the United States.
Hyundai and Kia have also struggled during the chip shortage. In 2019 they had 210,400 new vehicles in dealer inventory. Today that number stands at 79,400, with a days supply of inventory of 17.
If you’re looking to buy a car in 2021 the price you are going to pay will be higher than in prior years. We recommend you do not buy a vehicle right now unless you absolutely need to. If you do need a new set of wheels we encourage you to consider leasing instead of financing. More on that here.
Because of the shortage of new vehicles, used cars have appreciated in value as well. If you are going to buy a used vehicle, be sure to get it pre-purchase inspected.
As a result of the global pandemic, we have seen changes across every industry. The automotive sector has experienced some of the most dramatic. It’s not unethical to say that we’re running out of new cars in the United States right now.
Earlier this year lumber prices skyrocketed (and then fell back down to reality), home prices soared in value (and continue to), and other industries undoubtedly evolved as a result of the pandemic. However cars (both new and used), have experienced unprecedented impacts as a result of Covid-19.
Take a drive down to your local “dealership row” and you’ll see empty lots. Where did all the cars go?
Chips are to blame. No, not those chips … We’re talking about microchips, the unimaginably small, paper-thin integrated circuits that store data, transmit code and allow software to carry out their magical properties. Vehicles today are full of computers, microchips, and software. The reason you don’t see any cars on your local dealers lot is because production of these chips has been outstripped by demand.
We began documenting the chip shortage at the beginning of 2021. Initial news reports suggested that there would be a significant, albeit short-lived supply chain disruption that would affect new vehicle production.
10 months later, it is clear as day that those initial reports were wrong. Very wrong. There will be lasting and widespread impacts from this shortage.
Today we’re going to explore how we ran out of cars, trucks, and SUVs, what impact that has on you if you need to buy a vehicle, and what this means for the “new normal” of buying a car.
Let’s dive in.
How bad is this “chip shortage” anyway?
Frequently you’ll hear my father, Ray Shefska joke that Frito Lay needs to increase their production capabilities because of the chip shortage. If only the solution were that simple!
Global semiconductor production is derived primarily from three companies; TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. Those aren’t the three companies you need to know about though. The one company you need to know about is ASML.
ASML is a Dutch corporation that has cornered the market on the one thing that is more important than microchips — the machines that make them. ASML produces EUV machines. These are the machines that TSMC, Samsung, and Intel use to produce their computer chips.
Wired recently produced an awesome article on ASML, and we recommend you take a look if you’re interested in a deeper dive on them.
The long and short of it is that there is one company that produces these machines (ASML), the machines themselves are incredibly complex (100,000+ components), and they’re unfathomably expensive (hundreds of millions of dollars). When someone says “we should just make some more chips,” they don’t understand that ASML holds the keys to that kingdom, and they are producing as many EUV machines as they can. There isn’t a quick fix when it comes to producing microchips.
Our current microchip shortage is in part exacerbated by the fact that these integrated circuits are in literally every electronic device we interact with. ASML has some quality information on that here. Chips are the new gasoline in a sense — they’re everywhere.
So how badly is the chip shortage affecting the automotive sector? Badly.
Market Days Supply is an industry metric that automotive manufacturers and dealerships measure to track their inventory levels.
When we founded CarEdge we built software that tracks Market Days Supply for consumers so that they could be armed with the same information the OEMs and dealers have. If a vehicle has a high Market Days Supply it would indicate a greater likelihood that the dealer would negotiate and sell it at a better price. When Market Days Supply is low, a dealer (and the OEM) have little incentive to negotiate or discount their product.
The chip shortage, and subsequent new car shortage is very real, and very impactful.
Used car demand is higher than ever before
With automakers unable to provide their dealerships with new vehicles, used cars have become increasingly popular. Black Book, an industry leader in vehicle valuations, and a CarEdge partner, produces a weekly market report on used vehicles.
For 10 months now we have tracked this report each week, and it is truly unfathomable what we’re seeing. Retail used car prices are up 25% from just the beginning of this year, while wholesale prices have risen more than 30%.
There is serious concern that this “bubble” in used car prices will have lasting negative effects on the market. Our primary fear is that consumers who finance a used vehicle today will be in severe debt positions once supply returns to some sort of pre-pandemic normalcy.
For used car owners (and lessees) who have a vehicle to sell (and don’t need to replace it), there couldn’t be a better time to be in the market. Traditionally used vehicles are depreciating assets, however over the past 12 months we’ve seen certain segments of used vehicles (we’re looking at you full-sized vans) appreciate over 100% in that timeframe.
Is this the new normal?
In short, we think the answer is yes, and there are two primary considerations that give us confidence to say that:
The new car shortage will likely drag on well into 2022 if not into 2023.
Automakers and dealers are finding ways to increase profits while having less supply.
It’s as simple as that. The shortage isn’t going to end overnight, and while OEMs and dealerships learn how to cope with that, they are finding innovative and new ways to increase their profits. Even if the shortage could be reconciled tomorrow, why would Ford go back to their old ways? Why would the new car dealership go back to stocking a 90 days supply of inventory? Why go back if profits are up?
For these two reasons, we anticipate there will be lasting and permanent changes to the retail automotive industry. Here are a few specific areas where we think the change will be felt.
Say goodbye to manufacturer incentives
The days of rebates and special interest rates are behind us. Why incentivize the sale of a vehicle when you don’t have enough vehicles to sell?
The average incentive outlay (how much the manufacturer spent to incentivize the sale of a vehicle) dropped 40% year-over-year in August from $3,969 to $2,432 (TrueCar), and this trend will surely continue.
Automakers have traditionally spent thousands of dollars to incentivize the sale of their vehicles. These are marketing expenses that are paid for by the manufacturer. To be crystal clear, these are programs like the $500 you get off for being a recent college graduate, or the limited time $1,000 rebate offer on the Chevrolet 1500. These incentives are diminishing rapidly, and in a world where there is less supply, it makes sense for automakers to cut back on their budget for incentives and programs.
Be prepared to pay more, with more cash down, and get GAP insurance
Another lasting impact we see has to do with transaction prices (both for new and used vehicles). With less supply we anticipate that all vehicle prices will stay elevated.
Dealerships with limited supply are able to tack on accessories and “additional dealer markup” simply as a result of having ample demand and not enough supply. Traditionally gross profit on a new vehicle was near zero. Car dealers made their money on the “back-end” of the deal (selling loans and insurance products). Nowadays, dealers are making thousands on the sale of the vehicle, and even more on the back-end. This is a result of the limited supply and healthy demand.
We anticipate that this will be a lasting trend. Dealerships will not discount below MSRP on new vehicles, and they won’t negotiate on their used inventory. Instead, you’ll have to fight tooth and nail over the $900 “GPS tracking system” they installed (that really only costs $200), and the $5,000 additional dealer markup they added “just because.”
With prices inflated, and with limited leverage, consumers will need to be prepared to put more cash down than ever before in order to get approved for their loan. Unlike anytime before, GAP insurance will be a smart decision for most purchasers.
Get ready to “order” your next car
With limited inventory on dealership lots, we expect the trend to “factory order” vehicles to become the new normal. Ford and General Motors have both said that they like having less inventory on their dealerships lots, and that they’d prefer to move towards an order system.
This will in part change how consumers negotiate car deals, and it will also drastically change the way car dealerships look and feel. Do you really need a humongous lot when you have no vehicles on it? We expect to see the physical representation of dealerships change over the coming years as a result of more factory orders, and less inventory on dealership lots.
We’re here to help
The automotive industry is experiencing a transformation right before our eyes. Buying a car is even more difficult today than it was a few years ago, and in part that’s because of how rapidly the industry is evolving.
Here at CarEdge we’re committed to helping you navigate this process. You should feel confident when you buy a car, and between our Auto Advocate live chat support, vibrant community forum, and consistent educational content, we promise to do the best we can to assist you through this process.
The idea of selling a leased car for a profit was once a foreign concept. Today —amidst an ongoing chip shortage and subsequent new vehicle shortage — selling a leased vehicle for a profit is more common than you think. How can you sell your leased car and make the most money? Which types of vehicles are worth the most compared to their residual value? What automakers are making it more difficult for you to make money selling your lease? We’ll answer these questions and more!
Let’s dive in.
How to Sell a Leased Car
The steps to sell your leased vehicle are not too terribly complex. Here they are from Ray Shefska:
1. You need to first buy the vehicle from the lease company.
2. Call the lease company and get your current payoff. Get a 10 day payoff to allow enough time for the funds to arrive at the bank.
3. Make arrangements to buy the vehicle out directly from the lease company if they allow you to do so. Not all leasing companies allow this, so you will need to ask your particular lender.
4. If you cannot pay cash for the vehicle, make arrangements to finance the balance. Some lease companies can assist you with this. If not, check with your credit union or local bank. We can even help you with that…
5. If buying the vehicle out with the assistance of the dealer, be aware that the dealer may charge you their doc fee, collect all taxes due, if any, and collect the title and registration fees. They can also assist you with financing if needed. A word of advice: they very well may attempt to mark up the interest rate on the loan and also attempt to sell you their normal F&I protection products.
6. Once you have purchased the vehicle and had the title and registration issued in your name you can then sell it.
7. To sell your previously leased vehicle for the most money, compare quotes from online car buyers like Carvana and Vroom. We’ve made it even easier for you to get all your quotes in one spot! Simply enter your vehicle information below…
Get the most when you sell your car.
Compare and choose multiple offers in minutes:
CARWISER LETS YOU COMPARE & CHOOSE MULTIPLE OFFERS IN MINUTES.
8. If you decide to sell to a third party, you will need to provide them with your loan account number so they can contact the lender to get the current payoff. They will make the payoff and you will receive whatever balance is remaining. You will need to provide them with the title if you have it or you will have to sign a motor vehicle power of attorney instructing the bank to release the title to the buyer when the vehicle is paid off.
9. If you are selling to a private party, advertise the vehicle and always be sure to meet any potential buyer in a very public place and bring along someone to accompany you.
10. Never allow the potential buyer to test drive the vehicle by themself. Always accompany the potential buyer on the test drive and have your friend tag along as well.
11. Establish the test drive route prior to leaving and set the ground rules for how the vehicle is allowed to be driven. The driver must obey all traffic safety rules and stay within the posted speed limit at all times.
12. Once you have agreed to sell the vehicle, complete the transaction at your bank, credit union, motor vehicle agency or local police station to protect all parties from any issues. Be certain to make sure that buyer’s funds are indeed good prior to releasing any paperwork or keys to the vehicle.
13. Do not allow the buyer to drive off using your tags and registration.
Which vehicles are selling for the most over their residual value
Our friends over at iseecars.com did an incredible job analyzing millions of vehicles for sale to determine which cars, trucks, and SUVs are selling for the most profit over their residual values. As you’ll recall, residual values are set when you sign your lease. These values are the leasing company’s best guess as to what the vehicle will be worth at the end of the lease.
Because the current new car shortage was not foreseen in 2018, residual values are well below the actual value of nearly every leased car. This means that lessees are in positive equity positions; they can purchase their lease at the preset residual value, and it is worth more on the open market. Incredible!
What vehicles are selling for the most over their preset residual values? First, let’s establish that the average off-lease used vehicle is worth 31.5% more than its original residual value. That’s shocking, but compared to the top ten, it’s relatively reserved!
Which Automakers Are Making It Harder For You to Sell a Leased Car
A host of captive finance companies (financing company’s owned by automakers) have taken steps to make it more difficult for consumers to sell a leased vehicle for profit. Toyota, GM, Honda, Acura, and Mazda are just a few automakers that are no longer allowing third parties to make the payoff payment on a lease. Ford has not allowed third parties to do this for years.
A headline from Automotive News for GMA headline from Automotive News for Honda and Acura
What does this mean?
This means that you have to go to a franchised dealership to buy your leased vehicle before you can sell it to a third party. In the past you could go to Carvana and they could payoff your lease for you. Now, you’ll need to go to the dealership, buy the vehicle, get the title, then sell it to Carvana (or another third party).
Why are Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda, and Mazda doing this? Because it increases the chance that the dealership will be able to get the off-lease vehicle from you. Dealers are short on supply (cars to sell), and by forcing lease customers to come back to the dealership they are increasing their chances of buying the car from you.
CarEdge Insights
