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Upside-Down on Your Car Loan? How to Navigate Negative Equity
Diving into the world of car ownership can lead you into murky waters, especially when grappling with negative car equity. Imagine owing more on your car loan than the vehicle is worth – a situation many Americans face today. This comprehensive guide illuminates the shadowy depths of negative equity: exploring its causes, the impact of recent economic trends, and, most importantly, effective strategies to steer clear of or manage it if you’re already caught in its grip.
Understanding Negative Equity: How It Happens
Negative equity, often described as being “upside-down” on a car loan, occurs when the loan balance surpasses the vehicle’s current market value. This financial quagmire can ensnare car owners due to:
- Depreciation: Cars depreciate the moment they’re driven off the lot. If the loan repayment lags behind this depreciation rate, negative equity can develop.
- Long-term Loans: Extending loan periods results in slower principal repayment, risking negative equity as cars depreciate faster than the loan diminishes.
- Small Down Payments: Minimal initial down payments increase the financed amount, heightening negative equity risks if the car’s value rapidly decreases.
- Rolling Over Loans: Incorporating remaining debt from a previous car into a new loan can immediately create negative equity.
Understanding these factors is key to avoiding or mitigating negative equity and ensuring a financially stable ownership experience.
The Rise of Negative Equity in Car Loans
The phenomenon of negative car equity has been escalating, with recent Edmunds data revealing that 1 in 5 trade-ins have negative equity. The situation has become particularly pronounced in the new car market, where 20.4% of trade-ins are underwater, marking a significant jump from 14.9% in Q4 of 2021.
The average negative equity on car loans has surged to $6,054, setting a new record. This increase is partly attributed to the economic fluctuations during the pandemic when many consumers purchased vehicles at higher prices, leading to loans that exceeded the depreciating value of their cars. Consequently, drivers who bought cars during the pandemic are now facing the brunt of this financial imbalance.
What Negative Equity Means For You
Having negative equity on a car loan is more than just a numerical imbalance. It’s a predicament that can have lasting financial repercussions. Negative equity limits the owner’s flexibility, complicating efforts to sell or trade in the car without incurring losses.
For those looking to buy a new vehicle, negative equity means that the debt from the current car can roll over into the new loan. This leads to a cycle of increased debt that never seems to go away. Moreover, negative equity can affect credit scores and future loan conditions.
To combat these implications, car buyers should prioritize loan repayment strategies that target the principal amount. Also, consider shorter loan terms to align with the depreciation of the vehicle, and stay informed about the car’s current market value to make timely financial decisions. If you’d rather avoid the risk altogether, leasing is also an option.
Tackling Negative Equity
Navigating out of negative equity requires a proactive and strategic approach. Here are comprehensive steps and solutions to help you manage or eliminate negative car equity:
- Accelerate Loan Repayment: One of the most straightforward methods to reduce negative equity is to make additional payments towards the loan’s principal. This will decrease the loan balance faster than the standard amortization schedule.
- Refinancing the Loan: If you have good credit and interest rates have dropped since you took out your original loan, refinancing can be a smart option.
- Consider a Shorter Loan Term: When refinancing, opting for a shorter loan term can result in higher monthly payments but will significantly reduce the interest cost and speed up equity building.
- Lease a New Car: If you’re frequently facing negative equity with purchased vehicles, leasing might be a better option. Leasing a car can provide predictable monthly payments and eliminate the risk of negative equity, as you return the vehicle at the end of the lease term.
- Cash-Injection on Trade-In: When looking to trade in a vehicle with negative equity, consider making a cash payment to cover the gap between the vehicle’s value and the loan balance. This can prevent the negative equity from rolling into the new loan.
- Stay Informed About Your Car’s Value: Regularly check your vehicle’s current market value using tools like Sell With CarEdge, where you can receive multiple online offers at once. This awareness can help you make informed decisions about when to sell or trade-in the vehicle before the negative equity grows too large.
By employing these strategies, you can tackle negative equity head-on and work towards a more stable financial situation with your vehicle. Each approach has its considerations, so it’s important to evaluate your financial circumstances and car value carefully before deciding on the best course of action.
GAP Insurance and Negative Equity
(Related) 👉 Check out this guide to navigating the finance office like a pro!
GAP (Guaranteed Asset protection) insurance is indeed related to the topic of negative equity in car loans. Thus kind of insurance is designed to cover the difference between the actual cash value of a vehicle and the balance still owed on the financing (loan or lease) in the event that the car is totaled or stolen. Here’s how it connects to negative equity:
- protection Against Negative Equity: If a car is totaled or stolen, standard auto insurance policies usually cover only the current market value of the vehicle. If you owe more on your loan than the car is worth (negative equity), you would have to pay the difference out of pocket. GAP insurance covers this “gap,” preventing the financial strain of paying off a loan for a car you no longer possess.
- Financial Safety Net: For car owners who are in negative equity, GAP insurance acts as a safety net, ensuring that they are not financially burdened by the remaining loan balance in case of total loss or theft of the vehicle.
- Recommended for Long-Term Loans and Small Down Payments: For those who finance with long-term loans or small down payments, it’s smart to consider GAP insurance. It’s especially wise for leases and loans where the term extends beyond the standard three to four years.
In the context of managing negative equity, GAP insurance doesn’t reduce the loan balance or directly help in getting out of negative equity. However, it provides financial protection against the consequences of having negative equity in the event of an accident or theft.
Learn more about GAP insurance with this in-depth guide
Help Is Available
Negative car equity, while daunting, is manageable with smart decisions and strategic actions. Understanding its roots and applying tailored strategies can lead car owners from the depths of financial strain to the clearer waters of financial stability and equity.
Want to learn more about how your particular situation may impact your ability to buy or sell? Chat with a CarEdge expert today. We’re here to help!
Trade-In Values Are Falling in 2024 – Here’s What to Expect In the Months Ahead
If you’re thinking about buying or selling a vehicle in 2024, you’ve most likely encountered an unfortunate truth in today’s market: trade-in values have taken a dive. But what’s driving this decline, and how does it affect your next vehicle purchase? Will trade-in values fall further in 2024? Let’s delve into the dynamics of trade-in values in 2024, exploring the causes behind this trend and what you can expect when you decide to trade in your vehicle.
The Decline in Trade-in Values
In 2024, trade-in values are trending downward, primarily due to a steady decline in used car values at wholesale auctions. Last year’s volatility in the wholesale used car market has led to an 11% drop in values within just two months towards the end of 2023. We’re seeing that trend carry over into 2024. Despite this decrease at the wholesale level, retail prices have remained stubbornly high, resisting substantial drops as dealers maintain higher price points.
The used car dealers who make offers for trade-ins are nervous about two things: the slowing used car market, and high interest rates. Many dealers suffered huge losses on electric vehicle trade-ins in 2023 as values went into freefall. The same could be said about other vehicle segments, from vans to luxury SUVs.
The used car market turmoil has resulted in trade-in values falling more dramatically compared to retail prices.
👉 See this week’s used car market update
Pro from CarEdge’s Ray Shefska
CarEdge Co-founder Ray Shefska has some thoughts to share about trade-in values in 2024. Ray highlights that, despite the drops, trade-in values in 2024 are still far from what they used to be pre-pandemic. The automotive market is slowly inching towards a balance, but it’s a gradual process. “The car market remains out of balance due to the 16 million vehicles that were never built during the pandemic shortages. This shortfall will continue to impact the market throughout the decade, but we’re starting to see signs of improvement,” he noted.
What can you do to stay on top of the latest trends in trade-in values for your car? Get offers from online buyers with no strings attached! See real-time offers from online buyers with CarEdge.
What to Expect in 2024
According to Ray, 2024 is expected to bring back some normalcy in terms of market seasonality, which has been absent for a while. The early part of 2024 has already seen a dip in trade-in values, attributed to the post-December buying slump.
However, this trend is likely to reverse during the tax refund season in spring, which typically sees an uptick in used car purchases. This increase in demand often leads to a temporary boost in trade-in values.
“Post-tax season, I expect a slight decline in trade-in values in early summer, followed by a steady market until the year-end car buying season. Remember, depreciation is normal for every vehicle. What we’ve seen over the past few years was abnormal to say the least.”
Ray’s pulse on the market is rooted in over 40 years in the automotive industry. If anyone knows a thing or two about trade-in values, it’s Ray.
Historically, vehicle values take a 20% hit in the first year of ownership. It’s normal to lose around 40% of a car’s original value in the first five years.
The Takeaway
Navigating the auto trade-in market in 2024 requires an understanding of these new trends and their underlying causes. From the pandemic’s lasting impact to the return of market seasonality, various factors are shaping trade-in values this year. Whether you’re planning to trade in your vehicle soon or later in the year, staying informed about these trends can help you make a more strategic decision, ensuring you get the best value for your car in a shifting market.
👉 Don’t forget to check your car’s trade-in values from online buyers (no spam, guaranteed!). Get your no-hassle offers here.
Free Car Buying Help Is Here
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Car Market Update for Fall 2023: New and Used Car Forecast
Most car buyers don’t typically think of autumn as a great time to buy a car, but it’s the perfect time if you know where to look. Whether you’re planning to buy, hoping to sell, or are just curious about where the industry is headed, you’ve come to the right place. Buckle up as we steer you through the latest trends, from brand inventories and market conditions to financial forecasts. Let’s roll!
New Car Market Fall Update
The new car market still hasn’t reached so-called ‘normal’. Will it ever? Only a fool would make bold predictions after what we’ve all witnessed this decade. However, let’s talk about what we do know.
This autumn, we’re seeing an increase in cars on the lot, yet a significant disparity persists between automakers in terms of inventory levels. The current industry average hovers just under 60 days in terms of Market Day Supply. Why should you care about Market Day Supply (MDS)? This metric is crucial when understanding how much bargaining power you might have at the dealership. Brands with a high MDS are more eager to shift their inventory, and therefore, more likely to negotiate on price.
The High Inventory Brands
In the present market, Infiniti, Chrysler, Lincoln, Ford, Dodge, Buick, and Jeep have high inventory levels. This makes them prime targets for savvy buyers looking to negotiate a better deal. Here’s a look at nationwide inventory for the most negotiable new car brands:
| Make | Market Day Supply (Nationwide 9/1/23) |
|---|---|
| Infiniti | 119 |
| Chrysler | 179 |
| Lincoln | 128 |
| Ford | 99 |
| Dodge | 190 |
| Buick | 113 |
| Jeep | 179 |
| Market Average | 72 |
As you can see, all of these brands are dealing with a surplus of new car inventory right now. The longer that a new car sits on a dealer’s lot, the more negotiable it becomes for the knowledgeable car buyer. Dealers pay ‘floorplanning costs’ to keep inventory, so every day cuts into their profit margins. Learn how to use this information to your advantage with this 100% free Car Buying Cheat Sheet.
Low Inventory But High Demand
On the flip side, if you’re looking at Kia, Honda, Subaru, Lexus, BMW, and Toyota, be prepared for a bit of a struggle. These brands are facing low inventory levels. In some instances, new arrivals are pre-sold before they even hit the lot!
Here’s nationwide inventory for these new cars:
| Make | Market Day Supply (Nationwide 9/1/23) |
|---|---|
| Kia | 35 |
| Honda | 33 |
| Subaru | 48 |
| Lexus | 50 |
| BMW | 49 |
| Toyota | 40 |
| Market Average | 72 |
See local car market data for every make and model with CarEdge Data.
Surprisingly, Subaru remains a brand that’s willing to negotiate even when their inventory is low. Let’s take a look at some examples of today’s Subaru inventory:
| Make | Model | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Subaru | Ascent | 66 | 6,992 |
| Subaru | Solterra | 82 | 2,092 |
| Subaru | Crosstrek | 61 | 18,096 |
| Subaru | Forester | 74 | 26,782 |
| Subaru | Outback | 80 | 24,836 |
| Subaru | Impreza | 63 | 4,031 |
| Subaru | Legacy | 58 | 3,498 |
| Subaru | WRX | 83 | 3,339 |
| Subaru | Brand Average | 71 | 89,879 |
Our Coaches frequently empower Subaru lovers with the skills to negotiate even low-inventory new and used Subaru models. Check out these success stories of what is possible!
3 Upcoming Trends in the New Car Market
These are the top trends that our team of Car Coaches are watching this fall season. Each of these variables has the potential to disrupt the new car market in significant ways.
Inventory Surge: The buildup of new car inventory has already begun, but the question remains, will it last into fall? With sky-high interest rates continuing to dominate buyer’s mindsets, we think it will. We predict a buildup of new vehicle inventory as we near the end of 2023, slowly but surely.
Manufacturer Incentives: Manufacturer incentive spending is at a two-year high, accounting for 4% of the transaction price on average. Brands like Ram and Jeep have recently advertised new models at 10-15% below MSRP. If manufacturers increased their incentives to pre-pandemic historical norms around 7-9%, that would entice more buyers to take action. We don’t expect automakers to raise incentives at such a rapid pace by winter, however.
The UAW Wildcard: There’s speculation of a 10-20 day UAW strike that could cause short-term hiccups. While we don’t expect this to be a game-changer, it’s something to keep an eye on. It would, however, be a bigger deal for automakers like Stellantis and General Motors. Analysts estimate that a 10-day strike would cost them about $5 billion.
CarEdge New Car Market Seasonal Rating: It’s a ‘fine’ time to buy a new car.
Better deals are anticipated this winter, but depending on what vehicle you’re in the market for, this autumn just might be the perfect time to negotiate a great deal.
Used Car Market Fall Update
While used car prices have slightly decreased, they are still far above historical averages. This means you’re unlikely to snag a bargain, especially if you’re gunning for a reliable vehicle with a clean history for under $20,000.
Pro Tip: Never enter the used car market blind. Always get a pre-purchase inspection (PPI) to understand the future maintenance needs and overall condition of the car.
The Trade-In Landscape
Trade-in values will continue to slowly decline as wholesale auction values are expected to keep falling. Following historically steep declines in wholesale used car prices in July and early August, we expect a more gradual decline in the fall.
Whereas used cars, trucks and SUV values were falling at a rate of -1.00% to -1.5% weekly as of last month, we expect weekly used car values to decline by around -0.5% to -0.3% for most of this season. Why? There’s no indication that a glut of used car inventory will arrive on the market any time soon to drive down values quickly.
The best used car sellers (especially those looking to trade-in) should hope for is slow but steady drops in value in September through November. You’re likely to get more for your trade-in or used car sale today than you will in a few months.
CarEdge Used Car Market Seasonal Rating: very difficult for buyers on a budget.
This is especially true if you’re looking for a vehicle of decent, reliable quality for under $20,000. Interest rates incentivize large down payments and cash buyers, but most of us don’t have the means to put $10,000 or $20,000 down.
No matter what, don’t give up. From free car buying resources to 1:1 expert help with your deal, the CarEdge team is here to help!
Take This Advice With You
If you’re in the market for a new or used car, here’s our most important advice for you: Generally, say NO to market adjustments. A lot has changed since the madness and mayhem of late 2021 and early 2022. The exceptions are true specialty vehicles like Ford Bronco Raptor or Toyota RAV4 Prime, which are so in-demand that markups are almost a given.
For most new and used car models, there’s no way car dealers could justify additional markups in 2023. Staring down a tough deal? Work with a Car Coach to negotiate the BEST deal possible.
We’ll leave you with these reader favorites (100% free). Happy car shopping!
EchoPark Wants to Buy Your Car, And Will Pay a Premium
If you’re thinking about selling your car, you need to get a quote from EchoPark Automotive. Why would we insist that thousands of CarEdge Community members consider giving one online car buyer special consideration? Frankly, EchoPark is overpaying for used cars, and writing big checks to sellers in the process. Here’s what our team found using this free CarEdge offer comparison tool.
EchoPark’s Aggressive Bidding: A Windfall for Used Car Sellers
We did some research with CarEdge’s Sell Your Car offer comparison tool, and we found that EchoPark is paying too much for used cars. “Apparently, EchoPark has decided that they want to be the next Carvana,” exclaimed CarEdge Co-Founder Ray Shefska. Ray says that EchoPark may be putting themselves in a position where they’ll be buying high, and selling low.
We got offers from multiple online car buyers, and the difference was shocking.To get a sense of the overall market conditions for online car buyers today, we requested offers for a number of vehicles in different markets in America.
For example, we found a 2016 Ram 1500 for sale by Carvana in Kansas City, and received offers from multiple online buyers, such as Cargurus and CarMax. It turns out that EchoPark is not yet in the Kansas City market (more on that in a moment).
Cargurus made the highest offer, at $23,000. That’s $9,000 less than Carvana’s current asking price of $32,000. That sounds about right, at least in today’s market. But this is where EchoPark’s growing presence in online car buying enters the scene. They’re not in every market, but where they are, they REALLY want to buy your car.
EchoPark Offers Are Through the Roof
Now, let’s take a look at EchoPark’s determination to gain inventory. Over at CarMax, we found a 2021 Toyota RAV4 XLE on sale in Colorado Springs, Colorado for $33,000. CarMax is known as one of the higher-priced car sellers, since they claim to have no-haggle pricing (although you CAN negotiate your deal). For this RAV4 on sale for $33,000, EchoPark would pay $31,862 to buy it! It’s absolutely insane to see an online car buyer offering just $1,200 less than the car’s listing price. That’s yet another sign of a used car market out of whack.
Let’s take a look at one more example. To be sure this wasn’t a Toyota fluke, we picked this 2019 Ford F-150 Lariat. CarMax is asking $43,000, but EchoPark is willing to pay $38,700 to buy it. That’s NOT normal in the used car market. This is like if you went out and bought a $500 TV, and your neighbor offers to buy it off of you days later for $475. Crazy, right?
What does it all mean? This is a recipe for selling at a loss. Ray put it best, “Either EchoPark is desperate for inventory and isn’t worried about losing money on used cars, or this is pure insanity!”
These instant offers from online car buyers are generated by an algorithm that is supposed to offer a compelling price for the seller, but an offer that also makes it easy for the buyer to then sell that vehicle for a profit. Clearly, either there’s something wrong with EchoPark’s algorithm, or they seriously need inventory, and are willing to pay a price for it.
Is EchoPark Automotive Legit?
Yes, EchoPark is a legit business that buys and sells used cars online. EchoPark does not sell new cars. It’s also important to point out that EchoPark Automotive does not buy and sell in all markets. To sell your car to EchoPark, you’ll need to be close to one of their Vehicle Buying Centers. Most locations are in the southern half of the country, from coast to coast. See the latest EchoPark dealership locations here.
When you get an offer to sell your car to EchoPark, your offer is good for 7 days or 500 miles, whichever comes first. If you complete the deal within two days, they throw an extra $250 onto the offer.
When it comes to inventory, EchoPark mostly buys and sells 1-5 year old cars with low mileage. All of EchoPark’s cars come with a 7-Day Money Back Guarantee, similar to Carvana’s 7-day money-back guarantee, and CarMax’s 30-day money-back guarantee, as long as you’ve driven under 1,500 miles.
Compare Offers – No Matter What
Before you sell to EchoPark Automotive, we highly recommend that you compare offers from multiple online car buyers. You’ll get offers from reputable buyers like CarGurus, CarMax and EchoPark in seconds!
Thinking about buying from EchoPark? It’s possible that you’ll find a great deal, but it’s also possible (almost likely) that they’ll be overpricing their used car inventory to try and recoup money from overpaying for inventory.
We want to help you buy confidently. Do your due diligence and guarantee savings with the latest local car market data on CarEdge Car Search. How about premium market insights like Black Book trade-in values, negotiability score and official CarEdge recommendations for every listing? With CarEdge Data, you’ll get that and more.
Have you sold a car to EchoPark? Perhaps you’ve bought a used car from them? How did it go? Let us know in the comments below!
Car Prices Are Rising; Now Is The BEST Time To Sell Your Car
Have you checked your Carvana offers lately? You may be in for a welcome surprise. Used car prices are trending upward in early 2023, and if you’re thinking about selling your car, now might be the time! After seven months of steady price declines, January saw a return to higher appreciation.
To test this hypothesis, we crowdsourced data from CarEdge community members like yourself to figure out just how much cash offers from Carvana, CarMax, Vroom, and others have increased.
What’s driving used car price trends, and how are wholesale markets translating to trade-in values and Carvana offers? When is the best time to sell a used car? We’ll dive into that and more.
Used Car Price Trends: It’s a Seller’s Market
According to the latest data from Cox Automotive, wholesale used car prices increased month-over-month in January. From December 2022 to January 2023, seasonally-adjusted used car prices at wholesale auctions rose 2.5%, but remained 12.8% lower than one year before. Only part of January’s rising car prices can be attributed to typical seasonal trends. According to Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, the non-adjusted used car prices were up 1.5% in January, showing that factors other than seasonality are at play here.
Black Book data shows a similar trend across the broader market. For the first time in nearly 8 months, used car prices increased at wholesale auctions.
“The overall market moved back into positive territory last week for the first time since the middle of June of last year. The newer, 0-to-2-year-old units experienced even larger increases than the 2-to-8-year-old units that are typically featured in our report. The overall market for the younger units increased +0.12%, compared with the 2-to-8-year olds that increased +0.03%. Older model years, 8-to-16-year-old units, increased only slightly less than the newest model years, with an uptick of +0.10%.” – Black Book Market Pro – 2/14/2023
Used car depreciation is slowing down, although the extent varies from one vehicle segment to another.
Why are car prices rising again?
Seasonal factors are increasing demand as we get closer to spring buying season, but CarEdge’s Ray Shefska thinks there’s more to the story here. “There’s a shortage of the preferred used cars: 2-6 year old cars with lower mileage. Dealers are still willing to fork over more cash at auctions for the used cars that sell quicker. They anticipate a coming shortage of inventory in the warmer months, and are willing to pay more to get cars on their lots today.”
Fears of a recession are subsiding somewhat, and that’s contributing to dealers raising their expectations for the health of the used car market this spring and summer.
Carvana offers are rising fast
Typically, car market trends at the wholesale level take months to translate to retail prices. That’s not the case this time around. Here are some before and after comparisons of Carvana offers received by CarEdge Community in recent weeks.
We were shocked to find that Carvana’s offer for this 2014 Toyota Camry had increased by $2,117 in just four weeks.
Carvana’s offer for this 2017 Kia K900 increased by $1,837 in about one month.
This 2017 Toyota Avalon gained $383, or about $125 per week over the past month.
Ready for a real shocker? This 2015 Chevrolet Corvette gained $1,256 in just seven days.
This is especially noteworthy since sporty and luxury cars have depreciated faster than any other vehicle segment in recent months. Now, they’re quickly gaining value. Thank you to our CarEdge Community for sharing these offers with us.
Even if you checked your offers from online car buyers just days ago, we recommend seeing your updated offers with CarEdge. Your car has likely gained value in the past week. Compare multiple quotes without annoying phone calls.
Sell your car soon
Your car is worth more than it will be in a few months. It’s tax season, and car buyers are about to have a chunk of cash in hand. The increased demand isn’t ubiquitous, at least not yet. Newer, mainstream brands are appreciating more than luxury cars right now.
Ford CEO Jim Farley told investors that Ford expects overall transaction prices to fall by about five percent. “You think about that as a combination of incentives and lower dealer margins. We’re starting to see dealer margins come down now as demand from the industry is easing a bit,” said Farley.
Interest rates remain high, and may climb further. Will the Federal Reserve continue to raise the cost of borrowing money at the next meetings in March and May? Most analysts expect at least one more 25 basis point hike in the near future. With that said, the cost of financing is likely to become an even greater burden to car shoppers in the months ahead, and that could soften the market yet again.
If you’re considering selling or trading-in your vehicle, you’re likely to get the best deal in February and March.
Compare offers without selling your data
The used car market has changed a lot in recent weeks. Even if you’ve recently received online offers from Carvana, Vroom, or others, you’ll want to see your car’s updated offer. It’s likely that your car’s value has risen.
Sadly, most popular online car buyers and quote tools make money by selling your information to third parties. CarEdge will never sell your data. Get the best offer when you sell your car, WITHOUT giving your data away. Compare quotes from CarMax, CarGurus, EchoPark and others with CarEdge, and get your offers in minutes.
Has your car’s value gone up in recent weeks? Let us know in the comments below, or join the internet’s fastest-growing automotive forum, the CarEdge Community.
In the market to buy? We’re here to help you take control of your deal and save money. Whether you’re looking for some 1:1 help with negotiating thousands off your deal, or are simply ready to hand over the keys and let a pro do the negotiating on your behalf, CarEdge Car Coaches are ready to assist. We have options for every budget. Check out plans and benefits today!
The Best Time to Buy a Car Has Changed. Negotiating Is More Important Than Ever.
Did you know that new car incentives are 40% higher during one particular time of the year? It’s amazing how much money you can save with a bit of knowledge that car dealers don’t want to share. At CarEdge, we strive to make car buying and ownership easier, less expensive, and simply a better experience. In this guide, we’ll go over the best time of the year for buying a car. If you’re determined to spend less on your car, we think you’ll find this information valuable.
The Best Time to Buy a Car Has Changed
As manufacturer incentives plummet, car buyers are looking for other ways to save.
The demand for new and used cars continues to outpace supply as automakers have a really hard time increasing production. Global supply shortages have affected car makers on every continent. However, the situation for car buyers is improving in late 2022. After almost two years of ridiculous prices, deals can finally be negotiated.
The best time of the year to buy a car has changed. Pre-pandemic monthly trends may return someday (if automakers ever get back to normal inventory levels), but let’s talk about where things stand in 2022 and early 2023.
Wait a Few Months For the Best Deal
In late 2022 and early 2023, new and used car prices are dropping. This is not a normal time for car price trends. Price declines are more pronounced in the used car market, but select new models are negotiable too.
Let’s cut to the chase:
The best time to buy a car lies in the months ahead. Deals can be negotiated today, but your leverage for lower prices will increase in December and in early 2023.
The last week of the year is usually the best time to buy a car. Incentives and negotiation leverage improve as dealers hurry to move the last of the previous model year off of their lots.
Let’s talk about the used car market. Wholesale price declines are finally translating to lower used car prices (more on that here). This was confirmed by the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that showed used car prices were down -2.4% month-to-month when seasonally adjusted. New car prices remained nearly flat at +0.4%, the smallest new car price increase in 2022.
We track used car prices weekly. See this week’s used car price update.
New car prices are softening, despite automakers steadily raising MSRPs. Don’t expect widespread MSRP drops anytime soon. However, there lies hope in the slow return of manufacturer incentives and the demise of additional dealer markups.
Our CarEdge Auto Experts have noted that domestic brands like GM, Ford, Chrysler most often present the best opportunity to get a deal under MSRP.
In other words, your chances of buying a new car at or below MSRP are better now than at any time in the past 18 months.
The longer you wait (into 2023), the more negotiation power you’ll have as the overall new car market softens.
However, when it comes to total cost, it’s not that simple. Interest rates are rising to the highest levels in over a decade. If you wait longer to buy, there’s a real chance that the cost of financing may rise to the point where your monthly payments end up higher due to interest. Here’s the latest on car loan interest rates.
Wouldn’t it be nice to finance your car with someone you trust? Finance with CarEdge! We work with trusted credit unions offering low rates and great customer service. Learn more and get pre-approved in minutes!
The average transaction price (ATP) of new cars has hovered around $48,000 for months. The latest data shows it continues to remain at that level. How could we possibly advocate for negotiating lower prices? The data shows that luxury car shoppers continue to buy, and that has been driving up the overall market average. Deals are out there, if you know where to look.
With market conditions always changing, we believe that knowledge is power. CarEdge’s Auto Experts are just one of the great benefits of CarEdge Membership. Learn more about our plans. How much money can you save? Read CarEdge member success stories!
Historical Norms: When Is the Best Time of the Year to Buy a Car?
Pre-pandemic data from Edmunds shows that the time around Labor Day is when most new car incentives begin, with discounts growing as the year comes to an end. Better deals continue on outgoing model years through fall and winter as new models compete with outgoing model years for space on dealer lots.
Many automakers roll out the new model year by September. If you’re okay with the outgoing model year, you have significantly more leverage to negotiate prices down. Don’t show up to the dealership expecting thousands of dollars off of the brand-new model year unless demand for new cars falls off a cliff (as it did in 2020).
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Year-end car deals most often arrive as manufacturer incentives (which we keep track of every month). New car incentives were at historic lows during the worst of the chip shortage, but they’re slowly coming back as recession fears hit demand.
Here’s how current model-year savings compare with new model-year cars. Remember, these were the historic norms, and the situation in 2022-2023 has changed dramatically.
Stay On Top of Market Conditions
Would you have guessed that used car prices have fallen nearly 14% at wholesale markets since last summer? probably not, because it wasn’t until September that car prices dropped at the retail level. The car market is changing as automakers slowly come out of the semiconductor chip shortage, and consumers hold back on spending as recession fears circulate.
Here’s the bottom line: rapidly-changing car market conditions are likely to overshadow the seasonal trends that we’ve seen historically in pre-COVID times.
After 18 months of price increases, used car prices are dropping. Even if sticker prices are nearly the same, at CarEdge, we’ve had more members scoring deals under the advertised price. That’s why we think you should negotiate 5-10% off of a car purchase today.
On the new car front, negotiation leverage depends on three main factors: 1) vehicle supply, 2) local dealer inventory and 2) demand for the specific model and trim.
See the latest new car inventory numbers here.
For example, our CarEdge auto experts joke that everyone wants a Toyota RAV4 Prime right now. Demand is through the roof, Toyota is hardly producing any, and therefore prices for the RAV4 Prime remain insanely high.
On the other hand, some new car models have more inventory than at any time in the past year. New car inventory isn’t on par with pre-pandemic levels, but it’s an improvement. Pair that with reduced demand, and new cars are finally becoming more negotiable. Dealer markups do exist for popular models, but you CAN negotiate pricing on new cars again.
