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Trade-In Values Are Falling in 2024 – Here’s What to Expect In the Months Ahead
If you’re thinking about buying or selling a vehicle in 2024, you’ve most likely encountered an unfortunate truth in today’s market: trade-in values have taken a dive. But what’s driving this decline, and how does it affect your next vehicle purchase? Will trade-in values fall further in 2024? Let’s delve into the dynamics of trade-in values in 2024, exploring the causes behind this trend and what you can expect when you decide to trade in your vehicle.
The Decline in Trade-in Values
In 2024, trade-in values are trending downward, primarily due to a steady decline in used car values at wholesale auctions. Last year’s volatility in the wholesale used car market has led to an 11% drop in values within just two months towards the end of 2023. We’re seeing that trend carry over into 2024. Despite this decrease at the wholesale level, retail prices have remained stubbornly high, resisting substantial drops as dealers maintain higher price points.
The used car dealers who make offers for trade-ins are nervous about two things: the slowing used car market, and high interest rates. Many dealers suffered huge losses on electric vehicle trade-ins in 2023 as values went into freefall. The same could be said about other vehicle segments, from vans to luxury SUVs.
The used car market turmoil has resulted in trade-in values falling more dramatically compared to retail prices.
👉 See this week’s used car market update
Pro from CarEdge’s Ray Shefska
CarEdge Co-founder Ray Shefska has some thoughts to share about trade-in values in 2024. Ray highlights that, despite the drops, trade-in values in 2024 are still far from what they used to be pre-pandemic. The automotive market is slowly inching towards a balance, but it’s a gradual process. “The car market remains out of balance due to the 16 million vehicles that were never built during the pandemic shortages. This shortfall will continue to impact the market throughout the decade, but we’re starting to see signs of improvement,” he noted.
What can you do to stay on top of the latest trends in trade-in values for your car? Get offers from online buyers with no strings attached! See real-time offers from online buyers with CarEdge.
What to Expect in 2024
According to Ray, 2024 is expected to bring back some normalcy in terms of market seasonality, which has been absent for a while. The early part of 2024 has already seen a dip in trade-in values, attributed to the post-December buying slump.
However, this trend is likely to reverse during the tax refund season in spring, which typically sees an uptick in used car purchases. This increase in demand often leads to a temporary boost in trade-in values.
“Post-tax season, I expect a slight decline in trade-in values in early summer, followed by a steady market until the year-end car buying season. Remember, depreciation is normal for every vehicle. What we’ve seen over the past few years was abnormal to say the least.”
Ray’s pulse on the market is rooted in over 40 years in the automotive industry. If anyone knows a thing or two about trade-in values, it’s Ray.
Historically, vehicle values take a 20% hit in the first year of ownership. It’s normal to lose around 40% of a car’s original value in the first five years.
The Takeaway
Navigating the auto trade-in market in 2024 requires an understanding of these new trends and their underlying causes. From the pandemic’s lasting impact to the return of market seasonality, various factors are shaping trade-in values this year. Whether you’re planning to trade in your vehicle soon or later in the year, staying informed about these trends can help you make a more strategic decision, ensuring you get the best value for your car in a shifting market.
👉 Don’t forget to check your car’s trade-in values from online buyers (no spam, guaranteed!). Get your no-hassle offers here.
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These Are the Most Negotiable Car Brands in Your Region
When searching for the best new car deals, a powerful tool is the latest local inventory data. Equipped with behind-the-scenes market insights, you’re setting out with negotiation leverage on your side. The best way to compare apples to apples in new car inventory is with a little-known metric: market day supply. Market Day Supply (MDS) refers to the number of days it would take to sell all current inventory at the current rate of sales, without any new supply being added. MDS isn’t perfect, but it’s one of the best tools we have for gauging supply and demand in the new car market.
With a mix of leftover 2023 models and newly arrived 2024s piling up on dealer lots, now is the perfect time to put your car buying toolkit to work to hunt down some deals.
We’ve used CarEdge Data to identify the new car brands with the most and least inventory in every region in America. Skip ahead to your region using the table of contents below.
New England
These are the most and least negotiable new cars in Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Vermont in early 2024.
Most Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Dodge | 314 | 1754 |
| Chrysler | 260 | 838 |
| Ram | 258 | 4448 |
| Jeep | 249 | 12836 |
| Buick | 131 | 1036 |
Least Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 48 | 13930 |
| Lexus | 48 | 1956 |
| BMW | 49 | 3000 |
| Honda | 57 | 8134 |
| Cadillac | 64 | 636 |
As is the trend in recent times, Stellantis brands dominate the list of most negotiable new cars in New England. Asian automakers like Toyota, Lexus, and Honda have the least inventory.
See local market inventory for specific models with CarEdge Data.
East Coast (Mid-Atlantic)
This region includes the states of New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, and Washington DC this month.
Most Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Dodge | 311 | 9182 |
| Chrysler | 218 | 3028 |
| Jeep | 198 | 35721 |
| Ram | 192 | 12880 |
| Mazda | 120 | 24950 |
Least Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| BMW | 46 | 9378 |
| Honda | 48 | 24661 |
| Lexus | 49 | 8008 |
| Toyota | 50 | 36908 |
| Cadillac | 55 | 3254 |
Stellantis brands take the top spot yet again. These are the same brands we saw on this list over most of the past year. However, it is interesting to see Mazda inventory so high on the East Coast.
See local market inventory for specific models with CarEdge Data.
Southeast
This region includes Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, West Virginia, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas in early 2024.
Most Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Dodge | 365 | 29398 |
| Ram | 211 | 33461 |
| Jeep | 184 | 37196 |
| Chrysler | 166 | 3694 |
| Buick | 125 | 11446 |
Least Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 38 | 75528 |
| Honda | 43 | 33148 |
| Kia | 46 | 21222 |
| Lexus | 46 | 14694 |
| BMW | 53 | 13157 |
There’s a whole year of inventory for new Ram trucks in the Southeast right now. Toyota, Kia, Honda, and BMW are far less negotiable with slim supply.
See local market inventory for specific models with CarEdge Data.
Midwest
This region includes Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota right now.
Most Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Dodge | 354 | 13671 |
| Ram | 178 | 28066 |
| Jeep | 164 | 35543 |
| Chrysler | 142 | 4302 |
| Buick | 129 | 18753 |
Least Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Lexus | 38 | 4786 |
| Toyota | 41 | 30521 |
| Honda | 43 | 23579 |
| Cadillac | 53 | 4754 |
| BMW | 62 | 7074 |
As expected, Stellantis brands like Dodge, Ram, and Jeep have the highest inventory and therefore the most negotiability in the Midwest.
See local market inventory for specific models with CarEdge Data.
Southwest
In the Southwest region, we’ve included the states of Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, and Nevada in early 2024.
Most Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Dodge | 361 | 16824 |
| Chrysler | 229 | 2190 |
| Ram | 188 | 21176 |
| Jeep | 178 | 20976 |
| Nissan | 123 | 30298 |
Least Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 39 | 28338 |
| Lexus | 47 | 7636 |
| Kia | 50 | 10604 |
| Cadillac | 50 | 4032 |
| Honda | 51 | 17611 |
This month, Nissan joins Stellantis brands in the ranks of most negotiable new cars based on inventory.
See local market inventory for specific models with CarEdge Data.
West Coast
In this region, we have California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Hawaii this month.
Most Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Dodge | 396 | 10698 |
| Ram | 265 | 13031 |
| Jeep | 220 | 17964 |
| Chrysler | 212 | 2496 |
| Nissan | 134 | 19606 |
Least Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Toyota | 39 | 41813 |
| Honda | 49 | 26063 |
| BMW | 50 | 11087 |
| Kia | 56 | 11823 |
| Cadillac | 58 | 2190 |
Looking for car deals on the west coast? Follow the inventory! Stellantis brands like Dodge, Ram, Jeep, and Chrysler are the most negotiable car brands in states like California and Oregon.
See local market inventory for specific models with CarEdge Data.
Mountain West
In the Mountain West region, we have Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho in early 2024.
Most Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| Dodge | 352 | 1682 |
| Chrysler | 210 | 369 |
| Jeep | 199 | 6543 |
| Ram | 180 | 6723 |
| Nissan | 151 | 4845 |
Least Negotiable
| Make | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale |
|---|---|---|
| BMW | 40 | 987 |
| Toyota | 47 | 9400 |
| Honda | 57 | 3283 |
| Lexus | 57 | 1125 |
| GMC | 65 | 3221 |
Nissan joins Dodge, Ram, Jeep, and Chrysler on the list of most negotiable car brands in 2024. BMW, Toyota, Honda, and GMC have the least inventory in the Mountain West.
See local market inventory for specific models with CarEdge Data.
The Takeaway
Did you notice a trend in the data? It’s abundantly clear that Stellantis brands (Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, and Ram), are having a VERY tough time selling cars in 2024. Everywhere you look, Stellantis’ vehicles are sitting on the dealership lots for longer than any other cars today. Does that make them more negotiable? Yes, but not always. The dealer has to be reasonable and motivated to sell. By you arriving with this powerful market data in hand, you’re setting off on the right foot. Negotiation know-how is worth a lot in today’s car market!
👉 Try our 100% FREE car buying course: Deal School from CarEdge
Free Car Buying Help Is Here
Ready to outsmart the dealerships? Download your 100% free car buying cheat sheets today. From negotiating a deal to leasing a car the smart way, it’s all available for instant download. Get your cheat sheets today!
What’s a Better Value in 2024, A New or Used Car?
It’s a new year, but car buyers are still facing some of the same challenges. In 2024, the dilemma of choosing between a new or used car is influenced by several factors, including depreciation rates, interest rates, price trends, and the lingering effects of the pandemic. Let’s break down what you need to know to make the best decision in 2024.
Key Takeaways:
- For most buyers in 2024, new car deals are more sensible due to lower financing costs and attractive incentives.
- Used car prices are declining but remain high, affected by the pandemic’s long-term impact on production.
- New cars offer appealing financial advantages with low APR offers and manufacturer incentives, despite their higher initial cost.
- The choice between new and used cars depends on individual financial situations and long-term vehicle ownership plans.
- Free resources are available to guide money-conscious drivers through car buying decisions.
Buy New in 2024, But Risk Depreciation
The automotive landscape has seen dramatic shifts in trade-in and resale values over the past few years. In 2024, a trend that began last year is continuing: used car prices are declining in wholesale markets, impacting trade-in values significantly. The era of purchasing a new car and flipping it for profit is over. Instead, we’re returning to the traditional pattern where new cars lose a substantial portion of their value as soon as they leave the dealership.
Interest Rates Matter – New Cars Have Much Lower APRs
This year, expect to see an uptick in subvented rates from captive lenders, as new car sales decelerate. Low APR offers are here to stay in 2024. Manufacturers are increasingly offering incentives to clear inventory, including surprising zero percent financing deals available in January. Despite stable interest rates, the high cost of loans remains a critical factor in the car market. Consequently, we anticipate a larger share of new car loans will be sourced through captive lenders like Hyundai Motor Finance, Ford Credit, and Toyota Financial Services.
Towards the end of 2023, data from Cox Automotive showed an uptick in 0% APR offers. We expect this trend to continue into 2024.
With the average used car loan rate now north of 13% APR, plenty of used car shoppers are checking out new car offerings to simply pay less interest.
Check out the best APR offers this month
Finally, Fair Prices Are Within Reach For New Cars
Don’t pay dealer markups for any vehicle in 2024. No matter what the salesperson might tell you, we’re firmly in a buyer’s market. This isn’t 2022’s car market anymore.
After consecutive years of rising MSRPs, the tide is turning in 2024. Although prices for the latest models have increased for the 2024 model year, we don’t foresee this trend continuing once 2025 model pricing is announced.
Resistance to high prices is growing among consumers, evident in slowing sales and increasing inventory, particularly for expensive cars, SUVs, and trucks. This resistance is gradually influencing the used car market as well.
These 2023 models have the most remaining inventory, and high negotiability
Used Car Prices Trending Downward, But Remain High
Used-car wholesale prices have given up 53% of their pandemic gains. However, wholesale markets are largely off limits to the average car buyer. Unfortunately, this drop is less pronounced in retail prices. According to the Consumer Price Index, retail used car prices have given up just 36% of the pandemic price spike two years later. Retail used car prices are down 12.6% from the July 2022 highs.
Why are used car prices still high in 2024?
The auto market is still feeling the lasting effects of the pandemic-induced semiconductor chip shortage. Pandemic-related factory shutdowns resulted in 16 million vehicles never being produced. These missing vehicles contribute to a global shortage of used cars, expected to last until at least the late 2020s. Ray Shefska of CarEdge predicts a return to normalcy in the used car market might not occur until 2030.
In 2024, used car prices will continue their gradual decline, influenced by high interest rates deterring potential buyers. With new car loan rates exceeding 13% APR, a 20-year high, many buyers are turning away from used cars in favor of new vehicles with more attractive financing options. Indeed, new car deals make more sense for many buyers in 2024.
In 2024, the Details Matter For Car Buyers
2024 presents a nuanced picture for car buyers. While new cars offer more favorable financing options and the appeal of owning a brand-new vehicle, they also come with the risk of rapid depreciation and of course, higher prices.
On the other hand, used cars, although more affordable, are still priced relatively high due to market shortages years ago. Ultimately, the decision depends on individual priorities, financial situations, and long-term plans for vehicle ownership.
Free Car Buying Help Is Here
Ready to outsmart the dealerships? We have FREE resources for new and used car buyers alike. Download your 100% free car buying cheat sheets today. From negotiating a deal to leasing a car the smart way, it’s all available for instant download. Get your cheat sheets today!
Car Insurance Rates Soared 24% in 2023 – Here’s the forecast for 2024
As we step into 2024, American drivers are noticing a larger auto insurance bill with their policy renewals. Based on an analysis of 97 million auto insurance quotes from Insurify, a clear picture emerges of the key trends in car insurance prices for this year. We’ll examine the factors driving up costs, and take a look at how consumers and the industry are adapting.
Record-High Rates in 2023 Set the Stage For More Increases in 2024
In 2023, auto insurance rates in the U.S. climbed 24% to an all-time record high. The spike in rates was driven by rising repair costs, natural disasters, and more frequent car accidents. This uptick in insurance costs led to record losses for insurers. The latest data suggests that car insurance premiums aren’t done climbing. Insurify projects that car insurance rates will increase by 7% in 2024. That’s almost double the typical annual rise.
The national average cost of a full-coverage policy now stands at $2,019 per year, amounting to 2.6% of the median household income. In comparison, state-minimum liability insurance averages at $1,154 annually.
The Wage-Insurance Gap Worsens
In 2023, car insurance rates increased by 638% more than the average wage growth. Nearly 62% of Americans reported a rise in their car insurance rates, and about 22% experienced more than one increase in the same year.
To combat these hikes, many drivers opted to lower their coverage limits or increase their deductibles. Insurify’s data shows that most drivers took action to reduce their premiums, often accepting more risk in exchange for lower monthly premiums.
New York stands out with the highest car insurance costs in the country, averaging $3,374 annually for a full-coverage policy.
States with lower incomes are feeling the brunt of these insurance cost increases. Drivers in these states spend a larger portion of their earnings on car insurance, exacerbating the financial strain on households already facing economic challenges.
The Insurance Industry Is In Trouble
The past few years have been tough for the insurance industry. After suffering a $3.8 billion net underwriting loss in 2021, losses deepened to $26.9 billion in 2022. 2023’s numbers are still pending, but there were some signs of a recovery late in the year.
The rising costs of maintenance and repairs, increased severity of accidents, and pandemic-induced market fluctuations have all contributed to these losses. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an 8.46% increase year-over-year in auto repair costs as of November 2023.
Advanced vehicle technologies and electric vehicles bring new challenges, with repair costs for high-tech cars and EVs like Tesla being substantially higher. Insurance companies are increasingly forced to choose between writing a check for a $20,000 repair bill after a seemingly minor accident, or writing the car off altogether.
How Can Drivers Save On Auto Insurance in 2024?
In light of the rising car insurance rates, here are some practical recommendations for car buyers looking to save money on their auto insurance in 2024:
- Compare Insurance Quotes: Before settling on a policy, compare quotes from multiple insurance providers. Rates can vary significantly, so shopping around can lead to substantial savings.
- Increase Your Deductible: Opting for a higher deductible can lower your insurance premiums. However, ensure that you can afford the deductible in case of a claim.
- Choose Your Vehicle Wisely: If you’re in the market to buy, here’s where you have a chance to make a big difference in your insurance bill. The type of vehicle you drive impacts your insurance rates. Cars that are cheaper to repair or are known for their safety features typically have lower insurance costs. Research the insurance costs for different models before making a purchase. Compare maintenance costs for new and used vehicles here.
- Maintain a Good Credit Score: Many insurers use credit scores to determine premiums. A higher credit score can lead to lower insurance rates, so it’s beneficial to maintain good credit.
- Drive Safely: Safe driving not only reduces the risk of accidents but can also lower your insurance rates. Many insurers offer discounts for a good driving record or for participating in defensive driving courses.
- Look for Discounts: Always ask about available discounts. Common discounts include those for multiple vehicles, no claims history, low annual mileage, having safety features on your vehicle, and bundling auto insurance with other policies like homeowners insurance.
- Consider Pay-Per-Mile Insurance: If you drive infrequently, explore pay-per-mile insurance options. These policies base premiums on the number of miles you drive and can be a cost-effective choice for low-mileage drivers.
By following these recommendations, car buyers can make more informed decisions and potentially save money on their auto insurance in 2024, despite the overall trend of rising rates.For more information on the latest auto insurance trends, check out Insurify’s latest update.
Free Car Buying Help Is Here!
Ready to outsmart the dealerships? Download your 100% free car buying cheat sheets today. From negotiating a deal to leasing a car the smart way, it’s all available for instant download. Get your cheat sheets today!
These 2023 Models Have the Most Remaining Inventory, and Highest Negotiability
It’s 2024, but that doesn’t mean that 2023 car models are a thing of the past. In fact, 796,000 new model year 2023 cars, trucks, and SUVs remain on dealership lots in February. While some car buyers may hesitate to take home a 2023 model in the new year, others see them as the best chance for negotiating a great deal. We used CarEdge Data to identify the new cars with the most remaining 2023 inventory right now.Â
The Top 20: Ford, GM, and Stellantis Inventory Surplus
In February of 2024, Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis brands have the highest inventory surplus of new 2023 models. This is what we’d expect from recent trends in our regularly updated guide to the most and least new car inventory.
Here’s a look at the remaining 2023 inventory on dealer lots. Dealers and OEMs alike are eager to sell these vehicles! Learn more about how Market Day Supply is calculated here.
| Make | Model | Market Day Supply | Total For Sale (1/2024) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ford | F-150 | 107 | 95,948 |
| Nissan | Rogue | 91 | 47,188 |
| Ford | Explorer | 102 | 37,353 |
| Dodge | Charger | 469 | 35,495 |
| Dodge | Challenger | 344 | 26,024 |
| Ford | Mustang Mach-E | 269 | 22,629 |
| Ford | Escape | 76 | 21,998 |
| Jeep | Gladiator | 166 | 17,736 |
| Buick | Envision | 166 | 17,404 |
| Ford | Bronco 4-Door | 136 | 15,886 |
| Hyundai | Santa Fe | 48 | 15,643 |
| Ford | F-150 Lightning | 164 | 13,438 |
| Chevrolet | Traverse | 56 | 12,094 |
| Ford | Bronco Sport | 51 | 11,837 |
| Ford | Transit Van | 79 | 11,422 |
| GMC | Acadia | 117 | 9,933 |
| Toyota | Tacoma | 19 | 9,907 |
| Kia | Sorento | 51 | 9,736 |
| Ram | Ram 1500 | 106 | 9,663 |
| Volkswagen | ID.4 | 85 | 8,994 |
Ford
There are over 100,000 2023 F-150s and F-150 Lightnings still on sale in February. However, market day supply is ‘only’ half of one year because of the popularity of America’s best-selling truck (and best selling electric truck).
Ford’s Mustang Mach-E has rave reviews, but that hasn’t been enough to sell cars. There’s a 269-day supply of 2023 Mustang Mach-Es.
Stellantis
When sorting by market day supply, Stellantis brands soar to the top. In February, there are four Stellantis 2023 models with over 100 days of supply. It’s shocking to see how many Dodge Chargers and Challengers remain unsold. At current selling rates, it would take well over a year to sell these cars.
The Ram 1500 isn’t far behind. It would take nearly four months to sell remaining 2023 inventory at today’s selling rates.
General Motors
The 2023 Buick Envision and GMC Acadia both have over 100 days of supply, with tens of thousands of cars remaining unsold. There are 12,000 unsold 2023 Chevrolet Traverses still out there, but as a quick seller, they will likely be sold in just two months.
Follow the Inventory: The Best Deals This Month
The best SUV financing offer this month is the 2023 Hyundai Santa Fe. Finance the Santa Fe at 0% APR for 36 months, or 3.39% APR for 60 months. Plus, get up to $2,000 in cash incentives.
The Dodge Charger and Challenger both qualify for up to $2,000 in cash incentives.
The Ram 1500 Classic can be leased for just $470/month for 36 months, with $4,500 due. Buyers get up to $3,000 in cash allowance this month.
Ford fans can lease a 2023 F-150 Lariat for $577/month for 39 months with $6,525 due. The Ford Mustang Mach-E is one of the best EV lease deals in February. Lease a Ford Mustang Mach-E for $452/month for 39 months with $4,932 due.
The GMC Acadia is one of the best SUV lease deals this month. Lease the GMC Acadia at $249 per month for 24 months with $3,869 due.
👉 See ALL of February’s best new car deals here.
Get out there and negotiate, or let us do it for you!
Remaining 2023 models present the best opportunity for negotiating thousands of dollars off of the price of a new car this month. With three quarters of a million 2023s remaining on dealership lots, something has to give. Here’s to hoping that at last, prices could be softening.
At CarEdge, we are committed to helping you navigate through these opportunities to secure the best possible deal, regardless of your budget. From free cheat sheets and guides to our comprehensive Concierge service, we are here to take the hassle out of the second-largest purchase most will ever make.
Don’t forget to check out the most and least inventory right now, and the best deals in January.
👉 Ready to outsmart the dealerships? Download your 100% free car buying cheat sheets today. From negotiating a deal to leasing a car the smart way, it’s all available for instant download. Get your cheat sheets today!
